September should accomplish something that summer 2024 failed to do despite valiant efforts. Box office numbers should improve by at least $200 million over last September, with the potential to total $700 million. If that’s the case, summer deserves credit for building a strong base.
On the surface, that doesn’t look good. Summer 2024 was 10 percent lower than last year – a period that, with unadjusted ticket prices, was the weakest pre-Covid summer of this century. May and June were 15 percent below last year’s figure, but July and August were only down five percent, thanks to “Deadpool vs. Wolverine” (Disney), this summer’s big Marvel movie.
Yes, 2024 was the first summer after the strikes, but 2023 and 2024 had roughly the same number of major releases – just over 30. This year saw two releases over $600 million (Disney’s Inside Out 2 and Deadpool), compared to one last year (Barbie). Both of 2024’s hits ultimately grossed more than Greta Gerwig’s hit.
Even with the poor performance over the summer, it was enough to push the year-on-year decline down to less than 15 percent. By the end of April, the decline was a catastrophic 22 percent. That leaves the next four months to do the heavy lifting, with September setting the benchmark.
Likely to be the two biggest box office hits of the month, “Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) and “Transformers One” (Paramount) both embody formulas that were key this summer, building on past successes while feeling fresh rather than trite.
Tim Burton’s sequel to his 1988 hit hopes to continue the summer trend of top franchise titles outperforming their previous totals. (Adjusted for current prices, the original grossed about $250 million domestically.) The film is expected to gross $100 million or more in the U.S./Canada this weekend, helped by access to more expensive premium theaters.
What made summer 2024 different from last year was fewer titles with budgets over $150 million, increasing studios’ chances of making a profit. The Beetlejuice sequel cost $100 million and, based on pre-release projections, could follow the summer trend of struggling with overseas box office numbers.
Transformers One (September 19) is the perfect opening for animated films that also did well in the summer. It accounts for about a third of the summer’s total (around $1.2 billion). It should be the second biggest opening film of the month and has the potential for $50 million and a strong multiple. Universal’s animated film The Wild Robot (September 26) is an original and harder to predict. It premieres in Toronto in a few days. It could also have a chance of a $20 million opening.
Led by Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4, an unusual number of top films this summer grossed more than three times their opening weekend, suggesting an increasingly viable correlation with PVOD releases.
Blumhouse’s “Speak No Evil” (Universal) also has a chance of a $20 million opening. Horror films were a major contributor this summer, with around $500 million, led by Paramount’s “A Quiet Place: Day One.” Horror films have now moved more into the mainstream, which is benefiting original works like Neon’s “Longlegs.”
September was missing Disney. The studio returned to summer dominance with a domestic gross of over $1.5 billion. The revenue is good for the industry, but it’s also nice to see other companies holding out for a month.
About a dozen other releases, including several from independent theaters, could surprise, including some event releases from Fathom. Summer holdovers like “Deadpool,” “Alien: Romulus,” “Twisters,” “Reagan” and others could add as much as $150 million to the total, increasing the chances of $700 million or more. That would represent a -10 percent decline from last year. While there’s little chance of matching 2023’s $9.1 billion, the decline doesn’t look so bad anymore.
