We report on mortgage rates daily and have done so for nearly 20 years now. This is where you can quickly read up on rate trends and get a sense of what’s true and what matters. If you’ve stopped by here at any point in the last few days/weeks, you’ve probably seen one of several attempts to remind readers that not only did the Fed’s rate cut today have absolutely no effect on lower mortgage rates, but that mortgage rates have actually often risen on the same day that the Fed cut rates.

This happened today.

Interestingly, mortgage rates were already slightly higher than yesterday BEFORE the Fed’s announcement. The bonds that determine mortgage rates actually point to even higher rates tomorrow, unless there is a significant improvement overnight.

Given the short attention span, here is a list of reasons for this paradox:

• The Fed meets 8 times a year, while mortgages can fluctuate daily
• The bonds that affect mortgages can change at any second.
• This means that mortgage rates had a long lead toward lower rates while the Fed waited for its meeting date.
• A trader would be foolish to hold a tradable rate/bond in a higher range if they knew as well as you do that the Fed is cutting rates today. Why would they wait to trade mortgage rates lower? There was nothing stopping them, and that’s why rates have fallen so much in the last few months.

Some other perspectives of bullet points on the same topic:

• The actual Fed rate cut itself is only one part of the Fed day and usually not the most important
• The Fed also publishes an interest rate outlook from each member at every other meeting. Today’s meeting was one of them
• In addition, the Fed will hold a press conference after the announcement of the publication, in which the Fed Chairman can clarify the market’s assessment and help shape expectations for further developments.

In short, Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference was less interest-rate friendly than one might have expected given the 0.50 percent cut in the key interest rate.

And here’s the kicker: Nothing from today has any bearing on where interest rates will go in the future. There’s probably a slightly higher risk that recent lows represent some sort of floor until economic data suggests rates should go lower, but there is NEVER any way to know exactly how interest rates will move in the future. If you don’t believe that after today, then… just believe it.