The tropical system in the western Caribbean may not look like much yet, but don’t be fooled. History has shown that the Gulf of Mexico can be a pressure cooker, transforming systems like this from weak storms into devastating monster storms almost overnight under the right conditions.

In this case, the hot phase is already underway, as warmer waters over the Gulf are expected to help the storm’s wind speed increase to as much as 120 km/h by Thursday morning.

That means the brewing system will likely develop into Hurricane Helene on Wednesday and then experience an increase in winds that will make it a Category 3 hurricane with at least 115 mph (185 kph) as it approaches Florida’s Big Bend on Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center’s weather forecast.

The storm is expected to strengthen in the Gulf and reach potentially explosive power. It’s called rapid intensification, and it’s happened before. In fact, most of the worst hurricanes in history have experienced rapid intensification, Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather Service, said in interviews with USA TODAY.

These include two recent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Michael, which struck near Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle in 2022, and Hurricane Ian, which struck Florida’s southwest coast in 2018.

The official forecast for the Gulf storm is still below the strengthening forecasts that some computer models are predicting. Hurricane experts say the higher forecasts for peak winds and low pressure could come to pass if the storm develops the structure of a classic tropical cyclone before moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Although the prediction of rapid storm movements has improved, accurately predicting such radical events is still considered the “Wild West,” says David Roth, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center.

What is rapid intensification?

A period of time when the wind speed in a storm increases rapidly. The technical definition is an increase of at least 35 miles per hour in a 24-hour period, but storms can also intensify more or maintain their intensity for longer periods of time under the right conditions.

Rapid intensification typically occurs when a storm moves into or over warm water. Abundant moisture and warmer water provide energy that helps hurricanes build the tall columns of clouds that give them extra power.

According to Brian McNoldy, a senior scientist at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, water temperatures in the Gulf have reached record highs for this time of year.

Wind shear is expected to be lower as the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico, reducing the risk of high cloud cover being torn apart by headwinds.

In June, Beryl benefited from warm waters in the eastern Caribbean and developed into a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 210 km/h. In just 42.5 hours, it reached winds of 153 km/h, surpassing all previous hurricanes with few exceptions.

Why is rapid intensification so dangerous?

Higher wind speeds that develop with rapid intensification have a double impact on storms, making it more difficult to plan and conduct evacuations. In previous storms, people at risk went to bed at night expecting a lesser-strength hurricane and woke up the next morning to something completely different.

Last summer, Hurricane Otis in the eastern Pacific reached wind speeds of 177 km/h within 24 hours, shocking residents of the Mexican city of Acapulco.

The stronger winds and lower pressure alone cause greater destructive power. But with storm surges, stronger winds also push more water forward. This is especially true in the Gulf of Mexico, where the continental shelf tends to increase the level of rising seawater when a storm makes landfall.

Florida’s west coast, including Tampa Bay, is particularly vulnerable to storm surges, Jamie Rohme, deputy director of the Hurricane Center, said Monday.

Which hurricanes have intensified rapidly?

Of the ten hurricanes with wind speeds over 150 mph that have struck U.S. states in just over 100 years, all but one developed tremendous power and strength during their rapid intensification.

Hurricane Ian had two such outbreaks in 2022 with rapidly increasing wind speeds, briefly reaching 250 km/h before making landfall on Cayo Costa in southwest Florida on September 28, 2022.

Hurricane Andrew, the storm that devastated parts of southwestern Miami-Dade County, Florida in 1992, also intensified rapidly. Andrew went from a minimal hurricane to 175 mph (280 km/h) in just 36 hours, and its central pressure dropped by 72 millibars as it approached the Bahamas. Its wind speed was still 165 mph (265 km/h) when it made landfall in Miami on August 24.

In 2021, Hurricane Ida reached its intensity as it approached the Louisiana coast. Its wind speed increased from 85 mph to 150 mph within 20 hours, making it one of the fifth strongest hurricanes to hit the mainland U.S.

Can meteorologists better predict rapid intensification?

Improvements in data collection through the work of hurricane hunters and the development of new technologies such as dropsondes and drones used by aircraft have provided more information to the computer models used for forecasting.

A decade ago, the National Hurricane Center did not predict rapid intensification, but since then there has been significant progress.

“We’ve been pretty successful in Idalia,” center director Michael Brennan told USA TODAY earlier this year.

But Brennan and others like Roth say predicting rapid intensification is still a challenge. Both Beryl and Otis surprised meteorologists with the extent of their intensification.

Does climate change play a role?

Many scientists say yes.

Tom Knutson, a senior scientist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, previously said that while scientists are uncertain about the overall long-term impact of higher temperatures on tropical cyclones, they are expected to intensify more rapidly in a warmer climate.

Some scientists believe that climate change is already reflected in the rapid intensification of recent hurricanes.

A new study published in February by researchers at Princeton University concluded that rapid intensification events “are already more dangerous than normal hurricanes, and that future climate warming greatly increases the likelihood of (rapid intensification) near land.”

Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She has covered hurricanes, tornadoes and severe weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Possible Gulf hurricane could intensify dangerously