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Why the stock market could rise 4% to a record high by the end of July
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Why the stock market could rise 4% to a record high by the end of July

NYSE Traders

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

  • According to Goldman Sachs, the stock market is approaching its best time of the year.

  • The bank stressed that the Nasdaq 100 has been positive in July for 16 consecutive years.

  • “These statistics for NDX are stunning,” said Goldman Sachs.

The best days and weeks of the stock market year are just around the corner.

If history is to be believed, the S&P 500 could rise 4 percent to a record high next month, according to Goldman Sachs.

In a statement this month, the bank said that since 1928, the best days of the year have typically fallen in the first two weeks of July.

“Since 1928, July 3 has the highest daily rate of positive returns for the S&P (72.41%), followed by July 1 (72.06%) and other statistically significant trading days in the first two weeks of July,” said Scott Rubner, managing director of Goldman Sachs.

The average daily gain of the S&P 500 is 0.49% on July 3 and 0.36% on July 1. And from July 1 to July 17, only two days have an average loss, July 7 at -0.07% and July 16 at -0.01%.

“The first 15 days of July were the best two-week trading period of the year since 1928,” said Rubner.

Seasonal performance of the S&P 500 in JulySeasonal performance of the S&P 500 in July

The S&P 500’s best two weeks of the year are in July.Goldman Sachs

In addition, recent market trends show that July was an incredibly positive month for the stock market overall.

“These statistics for NDX over the last 16 years are staggering,” Rubner said of the Nasdaq 100 index. “NDX has been positive for 16 Julys in a row with an average return of 4.64%.”

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was positive for the ninth consecutive July, posting an average return of 3.66 percent.

If similar seasonal trends emerge this year, a gain of nearly 4% would catapult the S&P 500 to a new record of 5,665 based on current levels.

When asked what could drive even higher returns in the coming weeks, Rubner pointed out that the record $7 trillion-plus pile of cash sitting in money market funds could soon flood the market.

In addition, passive equity allocations could boost equity inflows as quarter-end and second-half rebalancing plans begin in early July.

“In the new quarter (Q3) and the new half-year (2H), a lot of money will quickly flow into the stock market,” said Rubner.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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