At the recent Goodwood Festival of Speed, I had the chance to chat with Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson. Rawlinson is a pretty open person, but not nearly as open as the CEO he used to work for. Rawlinson was, in fact, vice president and head of vehicle development for the Tesla Model S, a car that represents another Ford Model T moment in the automotive industry. Nobody really cared about electric vehicles until the Model S launched in 2012, and after that, every established automaker had to play catch-up. Sorry, Tesla fanboys—every time you slam Lucid, you’re badmouthing the man who built Tesla into the behemoth it is today.

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Rawlinson and I talked about a lot of things, including his goal of selling a million cars a year. Of course, his empire will have to get a bit bigger than Lucid Air and Gravity to get there, but there are models in the pipeline that will help get there. If you were hoping for a Lucid electric truck, you’re out of luck. Using some very simple math that we’ll share with you, Rawlinson explained why the business model for electric trucks isn’t sustainable. We know that’s a bold claim, but the science and economics lead me to believe that these trucks will eventually fail unless significant improvements are made using technologies that don’t yet exist.

But let’s break things down into categories to better understand why the Cybertruck, F-150 Lightning, R1T, Hummer, and Ram 1500 REV may all be heading for a cliff.

aerodynamics

Aerodynamics is a complex subject, but we can boil it down to how air behaves when it flows over something. In the automotive world, a moving car punches a hole in the air, so it should be as smooth as possible. The less aerodynamic it is, the more energy is required to force the car forward through the air. We measure aerodynamic efficiency using a value called the drag coefficient, measured in Cd. The lower the number, the more efficient a car is. The most aerodynamic production car ever made is the Volkswagen XL1, with a drag coefficient of 0.189 Cd.

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Aerodynamics are the reason most electric vehicles look like a half-boiled egg. Or a melted lump, as one of our expert road testers likes to say. For comparison, you can look at Mercedes-Benz’s entire EQ range. Pickup trucks are different, though, because they have to follow a design recipe that was cemented decades ago. Here’s what their drag coefficients will look like in August 2024.

• Rivian R1T: 0.300Cd
• Ram 1500 REV: 0.340 Cd
• Tesla Cybertruck: 0.384Cd
• Ford Lightning: 0.463 drag coefficient
• GMC Hummer EV Pickup: 0,500 Cd

Basically, what we’ve learned so far is that the Cybertruck has no reason to be so ugly. We just assumed it was aerodynamic efficiency that prompted the designers to make it look so, well, weird, but when it comes to electric trucks, Rivian is right up there with the pack. Now, before everyone gets too excited, let’s put the numbers above in context. The Cadillac Escalade, which is literally a brick on wheels, measures a drag coefficient of 0.363. The Toyota Camry, the best-selling sedan in the U.S., already had a drag coefficient of 0.28 two decades ago.

What have we learned from this? The basic concept of an electric pickup truck is flawed because the basic design of a truck is aerodynamically flawed. You can make some improvements, but even in the best case scenario, an electric pickup truck is no more efficient than a Camry from 20 years ago.

Energy efficiency

We spoke with Rawlinson shortly after Lucid announced that the Air Pure received an EPA-certified rating of 146 MPGe, which the garrulous CEO doesn’t mind much. We’ve known for some time that miles per gallon is an extremely silly way to measure electric vehicle efficiency. The actual unit of measurement we should be using is miles per kilowatt-hour (mi/kWh), which Lucid made sure to mention in the press release.

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The latest Lucid Air Pure achieved a record 5 miles per kWh with its 84 kWh battery, which equates to 420 miles of range. According to Rawlinson, who has obviously been researching this topic to see if it’s worth building an electric truck, the average range of all the models mentioned so far is between 2.2 and 2.6 miles per kWh. The biggest customer testimonial we could find online was from a Tesla owner who reported 3 miles per kWh. Remember these numbers, because they’re important as we move on to our next topic. According to Rawlinson, these numbers drop by at least a third when an electric truck is hauling something, which is why we’ve seen so many negative reports on the topic.

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The required battery pack sizes

The fewer miles you travel per kWh, the bigger the truck’s battery needs to be. That’s why the Hummer EV uses a 246 kWh battery, of which only 212 kWh is usable. The Extended Range battery in the Ford has 131 kWh, while the Max Pack option for Rivian has 149 kWh. We saved the Rivian for last because we can make an interesting comparison between it and the Lucid Air Pure. The Dual Max R1T with the Max Pack can go 420 miles between charges, which is the same range as the Lucid. However, the Lucid uses an 84 kWh battery. Essentially, the Lucid can travel the same distance with about 56% of the Rivian’s battery capacity. This is the main reason why electric trucks are so heavy.

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The battery is by far the heaviest component of an electric vehicle, and even a small electric vehicle like the base Tesla Model 3 weighs 1,710 kilograms. That’s about 360 kilograms more than an Acura Integra sedan, which is about the same size.

Why is this weight important? A fascinating study called Pounds that killfound that the baseline probability of a fatal crash increases by 47% if your car is 1,000 pounds heavier than the car it collides with. So if you drive a 3,000-pound Integra, the probability of being killed in a collision with a 9,000-pound Hummer EV increases by 282%. And electric trucks are significantly heavier than electric sedans.

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Why these trucks will never be affordable

Batteries are very expensive to manufacture. According to Visual Capitalist, the price of a Ram 1500 REV’s battery is $25,853, which is almost 32% of the car’s price. As we’ve shown, automakers can’t escape these costs. Because their vehicles are aerodynamically deficient, they need larger battery packs. The bigger the battery pack, the more expensive the car. It’s simple economics. That’s why all of these trucks cost close to or more than $100,000 if you go for the model with the longest range and the most features.

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Only next-generation technology can solve the problems

There are only two ways to solve this problem. First, automakers can build their trucks with smaller batteries, and customers would have to settle for 100 miles of range, but that’s just not going to happen. Or second, automakers will have to use solid-state batteries, and as we know from recent reports, these batteries won’t be a viable solution until 2030. And even then, these next-generation batteries will be slow to catch on, most likely on high-end models.

Until then, we’re stuck with $100,000 trucks that aren’t good enough for anything trucks are supposed to do. Sure, they can hit 60 mph in 3.0 seconds, but nobody really asked for that. Trucks are for hauling and towing, and we know how that reduces range. Given all of that, I just don’t see a future for electric pickup trucks. These things are headed down the same path as the Dodo.