The following story is the result of a collaboration between writers from MLB.com and Yahoo Sports, who are joining forces this season to cover baseball-related topics.

The end of the season often holds one or two surprises.

On this day in 2023, the D-backs’ chances of making the playoffs were 17.4% according to FanGraphs projections. They ended up in the World Series. On the same day in 2021, the Cardinals’ chances were a measly 1.4% at under .500 odds before making a run at a wild card spot. In other words, as long as there’s a chance, there is a chance.

Which team could pull off this unexpected surge into October 2024? As of Friday, FanGraphs’ postseason odds listed 15 contenders with relatively robust odds — nearly 40% or better. Eight other teams were under 1% (six of them at 0%). That leaves seven underdogs, each of which was between 3% and 20%. (These odds take into account not only the rankings, but also the teams’ true talent level and remaining depth.)

To find out which team could surpass those numbers and secure a playoff spot, we asked seven writers from Yahoo Sports and MLB.com to each take a position on one of those teams.

The teams are listed below in order of their postseason chances before Friday’s games.

Postseason odds as of Friday: 15.1%

This is how they could do it: Reach the climax at the right time

Despite not being above .500 since late May, when their winning percentage peaked at 29-27, the Giants have been milling around the bottom of the tangled NL wild-card mess and appear to be playing their best baseball just in time to have another look ahead in the home stretch. They weren’t exactly big buyers at the trade deadline – in fact, they traded away one of their best hitters in Jorge Soler – but their decision to keep Blake Snell despite rumors of his possible availability paid immediate dividends, as Snell threw a no-hitter in his first start after the trade deadline. It took a while, but Snell finally looks like what San Francisco paid for, capping off its highly active winter of free agent spending.

And while Soler is gone and Jung-Hoo Lee is out for the year with a shoulder injury, another of San Francisco’s big offseason additions is Matt Chapman, who has looked spectacular of late and has been one of baseball’s best hitters since the All-Star break. Add in the return of veteran left-hander Robbie Ray to the rotation and the stunning breakout of shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald, and this roster suddenly looks much more impressive than it did at any point in the first few months of the season.

San Francisco’s schedule also offers the opportunity to make tangible progress in the standings if the team continues to play well at the right time. They have six games left against Arizona, six more against San Diego and three home games against St. Louis in September to close out the regular season. It won’t be easy, but after a couple of seasons of unbearable mediocrity following the miraculous 107-win season in 2021, this year’s team appears to have enough top-tier talent to rise above chaotic mediocrity and earn a spot in the NL wild-card picture.

— Jordan Shusterman (Yahoo Sports)

2. St. Louis Cardinals

Postseason odds as of Friday: 14.5%

How they could do it: Key veterans turn back the clock

If the Cardinals want to make the playoffs, one thing is crucial: offense. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado haven’t had typical All-Star seasons, but St. Louis has stayed in the race thanks to its starting pitchers. If the Cardinals have any hope of making it to the final stretch of October, those two will need to get back to form and help players like Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn and Tommy Pham, who was signed just before the trade deadline.

The Cardinals also need to find a way to add some power to their game, as they currently rank 21st in the MLB in home runs. Without the help of the long ball, St. Louis will have to rely on other ways to get runs across the plate if they want to have a chance.

— Russell Dorsey (Yahoo Sports)

Postseason odds as of Friday: 8.5%

This is how they could do it: Patch holes with suitable reinforcements

The Rays traded more players at the trade deadline than any other team on this list, and traded away several key players throughout July. But the nature of Rays baseball is that there is always more talent waiting in the wings to fill those spots on the roster. Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs are now in the rotation for the first time this year after returning from injuries. Christopher Morel and Dylan Carlson, both acquired cheaply at the trade deadline, are in the lineup.

That includes Curtis Mead, who was a top-100 prospect before this season. Junior Caminero, currently the third-best prospect in MLB, has been a clean sweep in Triple-A and is about to move up. All of these players have a lot to prove, of course, and the Rays (who have scored 45 fewer runs this season) still have five games to play in the wild-card standings. That will be a tall order given their recent signings, but if there’s one team here that has made a habit of exceeding expectations, it’s this one.

— Andrew Simon (MLB.com)

Postseason odds as of Friday: 6.8%

How they could do it: By using electricity

Having ultimately decided against a trade, the Cubs have what some more serious contenders still lack: a solid rotation. Their big four – Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele and Javier Assad – have a combined ERA of 3.22. The bullpen has posted an MLB-record 2.61 ERA since June 1. Let’s consider that settled, at least for now.

But the Cubs have a .382 slugging percentage since the All-Star break, which probably won’t be enough to support the pitching staff. “Just hit more home runs” isn’t actionable advice, but if the Cubs can get more out of it, especially from Dansby Swanson (.230/.300/.357) and newcomer Isaac Paredes (.237/.345/.424), neither of whom has regained his 2023 form, they’d be in pretty good shape.

— Shanthi Sepe Chepuru (MLB.com)

Postseason odds as of Friday: 3.9%

How they could do it: rely on their rotation

Is it a good sign for an NL wild-card contender to be beaten at home by the Padres? Obviously not. Nor is the 4.5-game gap between Pittsburgh and a playoff spot. But the Buccos are worth keeping an eye on, if only because their starting pitchers are so good. Since the debut of wunderkind Paul Skenes on May 11, the Pirates have had the second-lowest rotation ERA in baseball. Fellow rookie pitcher Jared Jones, out since early July with a strained latissimus, is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment on Thursday. The stalwart Mitch Keller has the sixth-lowest ERA in the National League.

And while Pittsburgh’s offense can be frustrating at times, there are also signs of life. Oneil Cruz has an OPS of .824 since May 1. Bryan Reynolds was an All-Star for a reason. Rowdy Tellez has turned his season around after two terrible months. Catcher Joey Bart has proven to be a sensational project to revive a young talent who wasn’t quite maxed out after the hype surrounding his spot on the team. If this group can score enough runs, the Pirates might have a chance.

— Jake Mintz (Yahoo Sports)

Postseason odds as of Friday: 3.8%

Here’s how they could do it: They get some important attackers going

The Rangers return largely with the same lineup as their 2023 World Series-winning club, a team that led the American League in average and OPS and tied for the AL in home runs. But Adolis García (.655 OPS) and Marcus Semien (.727 OPS) have regressed at the plate this season, while Josh Jung and Evan Carter have been limited by injuries.

With Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom soon to return, the Rangers should have the pitchers they need to take the lead – but to win the AL West or secure a wild-card spot, they’ll need to have great hitters down the stretch.

— Theo DeRosa (MLB.com)

Postseason odds as of Friday: 3.7%

This is how they could do it: Finally win a few close games

With a plus-45 run differential this season, the Reds would have a projected record of 63-52, but they have fallen seven games short of that mark, in part due to their 9-20 (.310) record in one-run games. Only the White Sox have a lower winning percentage in such games.

Although Cincinnati would have to overtake six teams to secure the third NL wild-card spot, there is still a lot of baseball to be played. If the Reds can find their luck again in games with one point lead, they have what it takes to make a late playoff run, especially given the way Elly De La Cruz (1.027 OPS since July 8) and Hunter Greene (0.27 ERA since July 6) have been playing lately.

— Thomas Harrigan (MLB.com)