The Seattle Mariners have not yet withdrawn from the race for the AL West, and have therefore come a step closer to a wildcard.
On a night when the Houston Astros could have clinched the division with a win over Seattle, the M’s capitalized on a scoreless start by Texas native Bryce Miller to earn a 6-1 victory on Monday at Minute Maid Park.
Miller shines, Mariners win 6-1 and prevent Astros from taking the win
Don’t get too excited — the Astros (85-72) can still clinch the AL West with a win in either of the next two games in the series. But the good news is, if the Mariners (81-76) can prevent that, they have an ace up their sleeve, having clinched the season series against the Astros. Monday’s win puts the M’s 7-4 against Houston this year, so if the two division rivals are somehow tied at the end of the season, the Mariners would take the AL West crown.
That remains an unlikely feat. Seattle would not only need to beat Houston to keep its AL West hopes alive, but it would also need help from the AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians, who face the Astros in three games to end the season. With both the Mariners and Astros still in five games, Seattle doesn’t need to get Houston to 87 wins while also getting at least 85 wins themselves. If Houston loses, they’re 85-77. If the Mariners win, they’re 86-76.
However, the wildcard – or actually two – remains the Mariners’ best chance of reaching the playoffs.
MLB Table: Division | joker
Most of Seattle’s opponents had Monday off, leaving the Mariners a half-game lead over the three teams chasing them for the wild card spot. They now sit 1 1/2 games behind the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals (82-74), who share the American League’s final two postseason spots. The M’s are also a half-game behind the Minnesota Twins (81-75) in the chase.
Seattle can’t rely on drawing with any of these teams, however. The M’s need to be one game ahead of at least two of these teams to make the playoffs.
There was one team left in the race for the AL wild cards on Monday. The Boston Red Sox improved their record to 79-78 with a 4-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. They are now 3 1/2 games out of a playoff spot and two behind Seattle.
The Mariners’ playoff chances, according to Fangraphs, are 11.9% after Monday’s win. The M’s have a 9.4% chance of a wild card and a 2.5% chance of winning the AL West.
One more note on the Mariners after Monday’s win: Seattle now has 81 wins on the year and is guaranteed not to have a losing season. Another win in the final five games would give the Mariners their fourth consecutive winning season and tie a club record that was only achieved once in franchise history from 2000-03.
How can the Seattle Mariners make the playoffs?
• To win the AL West, Seattle must win at least four more times than the Astros in their final five games. The Astros’ magic number is two, meaning they win the division with any combination of Houston wins and Seattle losses that reaches two. With the two rivals facing off again on Tuesday and Wednesday, that means the Astros can clinch the victory with a win in either game.
• To receive a wildcard, the Mariners must have at least two of the following happen this week:
– Win at least two more games than the Twins.
– Win at least three more games than the Royals.
– Win at least three more games than the Tigers.
Who plays who?
The Mariners (81-76) have two games left in Houston before closing out the series with a three-game home series against Oakland (67-89).
The Astros (85-72) will play against the AL Central Champion Guardians (90-67) in Cleveland after their series against the Mariners.
The Twins (81-75) host Miami (57-99) for three games and then Baltimore (86-70), likely the first AL wild card winner.
The Royals (82-74) finish the regular season in Washington (69-87) and Atlanta (85-71).
The Tigers (82-74) play against the Rays in Detroit and then welcome the White Sox (36-120), the worst players in the MLB, to the city.
The Rays (78-78) travel to Boston after the series with the Tigers.
The Red Sox (79-78) are ahead of the series against the Rays in Toronto (73-84).
What happens next?
The Mariners play the Astros on Tuesday at 5:10 p.m., then Wednesday at 11:10 a.m. Mariners Radio Network coverage can be heard starting at 4 p.m. Tuesday and 10 a.m. Wednesday with the pregame show on Seattle Sports 710 AM, the Seattle Sports app and SeattleSports.com. For more information on how to listen to Mariners radio broadcasts from Seattle Sports, click here.
More about the Seattle Mariners
• Mariners activate reliever Gregory Santos from the injured list
• Julio Rodríguez named AL Player of the Week
• The final kick-off: What the Mariners can expect in the final week
• Astros star injured before big series against M’s in Houston
• Five young talents from the Seattle Mariners who increased their value through great seasons
