Top line
Tropical Storm Francine formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning and is expected to become a hurricane before reaching Louisiana later this week, according to the weather forecast from the National Hurricane Center, which has issued a hurricane warning for a large stretch of the state’s coastline.
Tropical Storm Francine formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning and is expected … (+)
Key data
According to the National Hurricane Center’s latest update Monday at 10 a.m. CDT, Francine was located 245 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and had maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Forecasters expect the storm to move slowly north-northwest before turning northeast and gaining momentum on Tuesday, making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane late Wednesday.
Although it was not explicitly forecast, meteorologists warn that computer models suggest a “fairly elevated” chance of rapid intensification that could begin within 24 hours and continue through the next day before the storm encounters increased wind shear on its final approach to the coast.
Storm surge warnings were issued from High Island, Texas, to the Mississippi-Alabama border, including for Lake Pontchartrain. Hurricane warnings were issued for the Louisiana coast between Cameron and Grand Isle, and tropical storm warnings were issued for the mouth of the Rio Grande, extreme east Texas, and southeast Louisiana.
“Life-threatening flooding” is possible in the storm surge area, with high tides up to 10 feet above normal from Cameron to Port Fourchon, Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay.
The National Weather Service warned that hurricane strength was possible by Wednesday afternoon and that Francine could bring four to eight inches of rain from the coast of northeastern Mexico to parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi by Thursday.
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When is the next forecast?
The National Hurricane Center will issue its next preliminary warning, which will include the latest wind speed information, at 1 p.m. CDT. The next full warning — with an updated wind direction forecast — is scheduled for 4 p.m. CDT.
What has to happen for a tropical storm to develop into a hurricane?
Tropical Storm Francine will be upgraded to a hurricane when its maximum surface winds reach 74 mph. A tropical storm is a cyclone with maximum sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph.
Large number
6. The number of named storms the Atlantic has experienced this hurricane season, including Tropical Storm Francine. The other named storms were: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, and Ernesto.
Surprising fact
Tuesday marks the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The season runs from June 1 to November 30 and typically peaks on September 10, according to the National Weather Service. There is a second peak in mid-October, affecting primarily the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and after that the season usually ends fairly quickly.
Important background
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expected this Atlantic hurricane season to be one of the strongest on record, with 17 to 25 named storms (with winds of at least 39 mph) and eight to 13 hurricanes, even though the past few weeks have been historically quiet. When Francine formed Monday morning, it was the first named storm since Ernesto on Aug. 12. According to Colorado state meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, it was the first since 1968 in which no named storm formed between Aug. 13 and Sept. 8. The average forecast over the past three decades is 14 named storms. The stormy forecast was due in part to “abundant oceanic heat content” in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, which “generates more energy for storm development,” according to NOAA.
tangent
The tallest building in Lake Charles, Louisiana – the 22-story Capital One Tower – was demolished on Saturday due to damage it sustained from Hurricane Laura in 2020. The area lies in the cone of uncertainty from Tropical Storm Francine.
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