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What path to victory can work for Missouri’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate?
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What path to victory can work for Missouri’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate?

KANSAS CITY, Missouri – Crystal Quade spoke to her supporters Tuesday night after winning the Democratic primary in the Missouri governor’s race, telling them the state is ready for change.

“People are ready for something different,” Quade said. “Missouri is ready for a governor who puts his people first.”

CrystalQuad.jpg

Chris Morrison

Crystal Quade

Quade will find out how ready Missourians are for the November election.

The Democrat faces an uphill battle to defeat Republican Mike Kehoe in a state that has elected Republican governors in the last two elections and whose state legislature is dominated by the Republican Party.

“I will work with anyone who has good ideas to make our state safer, stronger and better,” Kehoe told his supporters after his victory in the primary election on Tuesday. “As long as we find a sensible, conservative solution, we will govern.”

Mike Kehoe.jpg

Jake Weller

Michael Kehoe

Dr. Matt Harris, associate professor of political science at Park University, said Kehoe will have the advantage in November.

Harris believes Quade’s best chance of winning is if Kehoe gets injured.

“If the Republican forgets to campaign or says something absolutely disgusting, maybe the race will be closer, or maybe the Democrat will win,” Harris said.

matt harris.jpg

Andrea Hannon

Matt Harris, PhD

In a conference call on Wednesday, Missouri Democratic Party Chairman Russ Carnahan told reporters he expects the November vote to include the question of whether voters should restore abortion rights.

“We expect a record number of women and young people to come out,” he said.

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Courtesy of the Missouri Democratic Party

Russ Carnahan

Harris said these voting groups tend to lean Democratic, but he doubts they will be strong enough to influence the outcome of the gubernatorial election.

“Voters can, to some extent, compartmentalize these things and say, ‘I believe abortion should be legal, but I also want a Republican governor,'” Harris said.

The Secretary of State must announce by August 13 whether the proposal to put the abortion rights question on the ballot has met the required approval threshold.

Democrats have won five of the last eight gubernatorial elections in Missouri, behind Mel Carnahan, Bob Holden and Jay Nixon. Nixon last won the gubernatorial election in 2012.

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