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Week 5 odds, picks, best bets for the SEC showdown
Alabama

Week 5 odds, picks, best bets for the SEC showdown

The college football world will turn its attention to Tuscaloosa on Saturday night when No. 4 Alabama faces No. 2 Georgia in a crucial SEC matchup to start the season.

Georgia is looking for revenge after Alabama’s SEC Championship win last fall, while Kalen DeBoer would like nothing more than to get his first statement win as head coach of the Crimson Tide against Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs.

Georgia vs Alabama odds

team Spread Money line In total
Georgia -1.5 (-115) -125 o49.5 (-110)
Alabama +1.5 (-105) +105 u49.5 (-110)
Odds via BetMGM

When Georgia has the ball

When we last saw Carson Beck, he was struggling to move the ball against Kentucky’s defense two weeks ago before Georgia’s bye.

He finished the game with 160 passing yards on a 15-of-24 completion percentage in a game in which the Bulldogs had just 12 first downs and 262 yards of offense. It was a performance that increased the quarterback’s Heisman odds from 14/1 to 18/1.

That’s not enough against an Alabama defense that allows the second-lowest pass completion rate and ranks 11th in PFF coverage grade.

Keeping Beck out of obvious passing situations will be crucial, and the Bulldogs will lean on former Florida transfer running back Trevor Etienne on early downs.

Etienne, the brother of Jaguars RB Travis Etienne, averaged 6.0 yards per carry and more than four yards after first contact per attempt in his three years in the SEC.

Alabama, which allowed 150 yards after contact with South Florida in Week 2, has yet to face a running back of Etienne’s caliber.


Expect Trevor Etienne to play a big role for the Bulldogs on early downs.
Expect Trevor Etienne to play a big role for the Bulldogs on early downs. Getty Images

When Alabama has the ball

Jalen Milroe’s improvement through three games has been impressive. He still doesn’t utilize the middle part of the field to a great extent, but he has significantly reduced his mistakes; its revenue-effective gaming ratio fell from 2.8% to 1.4%.

Milroe remains one of the best deep-ball passers in the country, having completed 7 of 14 passes of at least 20 yards for 302 yards and five touchdowns.

The Crimson Tide have plenty of wide receivers, but the player the Bulldogs need to consider the most is true freshman Ryan Williams, who has caught 10 of 12 targets for 285 yards and four touchdowns in three games.

His elite speed deep, coupled with Milroe’s rocket arm, puts tremendous pressure on the back end of the defense and will force the Bulldogs to maintain easier boxes against the run.

If the Bulldogs can’t commit additional resources to stop the run, opportunities open up for Milroe as a rusher and for the talented backfield duo of Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, who are averaging nine yards per carry together this season.

Georgia ranks just 95th in defensive rushing success rate and stopping the run on early downs could be difficult.


Betting on college football?


Choice between Georgia and Alabama

According to Action Network, Georgia is 1-8 in a row since 2008 and 4-5 against Alabama.

After 113 consecutive home games as favorites, Alabama is a home underdog in this matchup – the first time they have been a home dog since November 2007.

Chances are there will be a changing of the guard in the SEC in the post-Nick Saban era, but DeBoer has his team firing on all cylinders early this season.

Both teams will be well prepared after a bye week, but I’m on the side of the Crimson Tide’s offense, with Milroe and Williams providing the big threat in this game.

I’m backing Alabama as a rare underdog in what could be Saturday night’s game of the year.

Best Bet: Alabama Moneyline (+105, BetMGM)


Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne covers college football and the NFL for the New York Post. It is up 84.5 units in both sports, with an ROI of 6.27%.

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