The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a developing storm in the western Caribbean that is expected to intensify and move northward in the coming days, possibly reaching the United States by Thursday.

A tropical storm is expected to form over the next two days and could become a hurricane before reaching Florida or the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast later this week. The public is warned to closely monitor the development of the storm system.

“Showers and thunderstorms are becoming gradually more organized in association with an extensive low pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean,” the NHC said in a Tropical Weather Outlook.

It continues: “Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next day or two as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where further development is expected.”

There is an 80 percent chance that the system will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and a 90 percent chance in the next seven days.

“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for the impacts of a hurricane,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s senior hurricane expert, said in an update, adding that the low pressure system has the potential to become the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season.

Residents of the Gulf Coast – from New Orleans, Louisiana, to Key West, Florida, including the Tampa Bay area – should remain alert and monitor the path of the potential storm.

DaSilva also warned that tall pine trees along the Big Bend and Nature Coast areas of Florida pose a particular danger. “These trees can be incredibly dangerous during hurricane-force winds. When Idalia hit the Big Bend region last August, we saw many trees fall on homes and damage parked cars,” he said.

Newsweek asked AccuWeather for comment via email on Monday.

Tropical depressions are the weakest type of tropical cyclone. When a depression’s maximum sustained winds increase to 39 miles per hour, it becomes a tropical storm, at which point it receives a name.

When wind speeds reach 120 km/h or more, the system is classified as a hurricane, typhoon, or tropical cyclone, depending on its origin. The term “hurricane” is used in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.

According to NHC convention, the storm is named Helene when it reaches tropical storm strength.

“The system is expected to strengthen as it moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico, bringing possible impacts of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and strong winds to portions of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast,” the NHC wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday.

It continued: “Although it is too early to determine the exact location and extent of impact, residents in these areas should monitor the latest weather forecasts and ensure they have a hurricane plan in place.”

Regardless of further developments, the weather system will bring heavy rains to eastern parts of Nicaragua, Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula through Wednesday, and near Cuba and the Cayman Islands through Thursday.

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are possible in these areas, the NHC said.

Meanwhile, another tropical disturbance is in place in the eastern and central Atlantic with a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next seven days. The low pressure system is currently located between West Africa and the Cape Verde Islands and is expected to move west-northwestward throughout the week.

The storms follow a warning from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that above-average hurricane activity is expected in the Atlantic basin in 2024. The increased activity was expected as a result of near-record high ocean temperatures associated with the development of the La Niña weather phenomenon, weaker Atlantic trade winds and reduced wind shear, all of which favor the formation of tropical storms.

The hurricane season officially ends on November 30th.

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