Between the losses to UVA and Ole Miss and the bye week, it feels like Wake Forest hasn’t won a football game in a long time. Hopefully that will come to an end on Saturday as the Deacs play their fourth straight home game in Winston Salem – this time against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. At 1-2, this game is a must-win for Wake Forest, not only to get to a bowl game, but also to keep morale high for the rest of the season. Here are the keys to Wake Forest moving to 2-2 this season and picking up its first FBS win of the year:

Secondary break (downwards)

This will continue to be the key to Wake Forest winning games until the Deacs can fix everything that is wrong in the secondary. Against Ole Miss, we saw the same thing that had happened several times against UVA: a miscommunication or a faulty coverage in the secondary that led to one of the easiest touchdowns imaginable.

Jordan Watkins is so open on this play that he lightly jogs the final 20 yards and the Deacs still have no one near him. It really doesn’t matter if the opponent is a top 5 team with a 5-star QB or the high school team on the way there. If the defense leaves a player behind that leaves the field open, it will likely result in a touchdown. The Deacs simply cannot continue to give up these wide-open, deep passes and expect to win games.

While Louisiana isn’t a team that slings the ball all over the field, they will take plenty of deep shots. The Cajuns use a lot of play-action and pre-snap movement to get the defense out of position, which allows seventh-year QB Ben Wooldridge (same recruiting class as Sam Hartman!) to beat his guys on the field .

In this game, there will be plenty of chances for the secondary to fall for the eye candy of the UL offense and allow a receiver to sneak up behind them. Therefore, this week they need to be more disciplined and understand their tasks. A single missed coverage in a close game could potentially spell the death knell for Wake’s bowl hopes this season.

Run DMC

Louisiana has been one of the better overall defensive teams in the country this season, giving up just 20.3 points and 266 yards per game so far. However, they haven’t been great against the run – the Ragin’ Cajuns rank 85th nationally in stopping the run, giving up 152.7 yards per game. In their last game against Tulane (their first non-FCS opponent or in their first FBS season), UL allowed the Green Wave to gain 272 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns on 47 carries – something not many teams can win , while giving up nearly 300 yards on the ground.

We saw what happens when the Deacs are unable to run the ball effectively in the Ole Miss game, so getting Demond Claiborne going should be a priority in this game. The Deacs will need Claiborne to play at an All-ACC level in their remaining games, so building some momentum against a Sun Belt team could be invaluable. Claiborne said earlier this week that he believes he could handle a 60-carry game, and while that might be a bit too much, the Deacs should definitely use him as much as possible on Saturday.

Keep doing what worked

One of the positive aspects of the Ole Miss game was that the Deacs finally started using the running backs in the passing game.

As teams focus on compressing the pocket around the mesh point, getting the ball to the running backs quickly in open space is a great change of pace on offense – Carney and Claiborne combined for seven catches for 71 yards against Ole Miss. This was much more effective against the blitz than leaving the running backs on the block, which (to put it nicely) remains a work in progress.

Louisiana currently has one of the worst pass rushes in the country with 0 sacks in 3 games. While that sounds like good news, remember that in the fourth game of the season last year, a Georgia Tech team that had just one sack sacked Mitch Griffis eight times and forced five turnovers. Since the Ragin’ Cajuns are a team that has never seen the slow mesh before, there’s a good chance they prepared for it by watching a lot of last year’s games – the games at which Heat’s sending repeatedly blew up the slow mesh and destroyed Wake’s entire offense. If Louisiana goes this route and sends extra players on every play, hopefully the Deacs will remember what worked against the Rebels and get the running backs in the house.

Unbalance Louisiana

Through three games, the Ragin’ Cajuns are one of the most balanced teams in the country. They threw the ball 95 times for 798 yards and 6 touchdowns and ran the ball 92 times for 550 yards and 6 touchdowns – that’s as close to perfect balance a team can achieve. Louisiana is even clear about who gets those yards; The Ragin’ Cajuns have 3 players with between 20 and 26 carries and 8 players with between 5 and 10 receptions. This balance can be difficult to defend as there is no player to focus on and the ball can go to any player on any play.

To make things easier, the Deacs have to find a way to keep the Ragin’ Cajuns off balance. Keeping Louisiana off schedule on early downs would help shrink the playbook. Chasing the quarterback on passing plays and racking up a few sacks could make UL uncomfortable throwing the ball, while just building a lead on offense could put UL in a position where they can’t throw the ball that way often run as they please. Whatever it is, Wake must find a way to keep Louisiana from dictating the tempo and moving the ball down the field methodically and with perfect balance.

The winning streak begins on Saturday.

Come on, Deacs!