The dramatic tug-of-war over conference realignment between the Pac-12 and Mountain West continued late into the night and was volatile. After four schools in the American Athletic Conference announced Monday that they would remain in the league after intense pressure from the six-member Pac-12, sources briefed on the situation said The athlete that Utah State has agreed to join the Pac-12 as the fifth Mountain West member, bringing the newly formed league, which began in September with just two schools, to seven members by 2026.

But neither the Mountain West nor the Pac-12 can stay at seven members long-term and would have to return to at least eight schools to remain recognized as an NCAA and Football Bowl Subdivision conference beyond 2026.

The Mountain West spent the entire weekend trying to tie its eight remaining members together through rights transfers or other financial agreements. The league is set to receive over $111 million in exit and poaching fees from the Pac-12. Air Force, which had interest from the AAC and Pac-12, committed to staying with the Mountain West. Other Mountain West schools began to do the same.

Utah State, however, did not. Instead, the Aggies decided to continue with the Pac-12, received an offer, and accepted it. That brought both conferences to seven as talks continued late into the night.

All eyes now turn to UNLV, which was a top destination for the Pac-12 after AAC schools Memphis, Tulane, USF and UTSA rejected the league due to concerns about Pac-12 projections, travel costs and the AAC’s high exit fees. UNLV is part of the same university system as Nevada, and opinions vary on how big the hurdle might be between the two. Air Force could also be in contention for the Pac-12 or AAC again after Utah State unexpectedly dropped out of the MW agreement.

The Pac-12 and Gonzaga have had talks about the Bulldogs joining the league, but an agreement or announcement is not imminent, people briefed on the situation said. The athleteGonzaga would not be among the eight football-playing members required by 2026.

The two Pac-12 members, Oregon State and Washington State, could have hosted all 12 Mountain West schools for free based on a scheduling agreement the conferences signed last year. But the relationship between the leagues soured when they couldn’t agree on a 2025 schedule by Sept. 1 of this year. Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State then jumped into the Pac-12 to get away from the least-invested schools in the Mountain West and hope that momentum would create a new conference with the best of the non-Power 4 schools.

But the big push east didn’t work out, and now the Pac-12 is focusing on more Mountain West schools it didn’t have in its Plan A. There was some tension among the Mountain West schools after the top four defected two weeks ago, blindsiding the others. One reason the remaining eight wanted to stay together was to give them something to throw at them, either by getting the tens of millions of dollars in exit fees or by being invited as a group. But Utah State’s move could dash those hopes.

Adding Utah State brings the amount of poaching fees the Pac-12 owes the Mountain West to $55 million, while adding another Mountain West school would increase that amount again to $67.5 million, on top of the roughly $18 million each Mountain West school owes in exit fees. That’s nearly $150 million to restore almost exactly the same league they were in right now.

That is, if the Mountain West still exists at the end. Under Mountain West rules, a two-thirds vote of league members would be needed to dissolve the conference, another possibility being a semi-merger that could eliminate all dues from schools leaving the league, leaving the few schools at the bottom of the league to find somewhere else to play. Mountain West has discussed possible new entrants like UTEP, but nothing will happen until its own membership is secured.

This isn’t the first time Utah State has been part of a plan to destabilize the Mountain West. In 2010, Utah State helped the WAC spearhead “The Project,” which would have seen BYU leave the Mountain West and join the WAC in non-football sports, with other Mountain West schools following suit. (The Mountain West itself was formed in 1998 as a split from the WAC.) Instead, commissioner Craig Thompson convinced Fresno State and Nevada to join the Mountain West, setting in motion the events that ended the WAC’s run as an FBS conference. Utah State eventually joined the Mountain West in 2013.

Utah State was the unexpected troublemaker this time around, too. Now everyone is playing a numbers game, and options are dwindling. And all this for a league that isn’t expected to make much more money than the current Mountain West. It was a day of action that stunned industry observers. But conference realignment in the face of an uncertain future for college sports has everyone and everything playing a desperate game for fear of being left behind in some form. More discussion and possibly decisions are expected Tuesday.

(Photo: Chris Gardner/Getty Images)