Let’s be honest: who of you expected this quarter-final constellation when the draw was made? Who had neither Novak Djokovic nor Carlos Alcaraz in the last eight in the men’s singles? And who had Coco Gauff behind with 60 unforced errors against Emma Navarro before the quarter-finals in the women’s singles?

In this highly unpredictable US Open, we try to find out who the remaining favorites are.

Women’s singles

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka is in good company. She is now in the quarterfinals of the US Open for the fourth year in a row – the first woman to do so since Serena Williams’ run from 2011 to 2016. She is the sixth player since 2000 to reach eight consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinals. She has the experience and form to win the entire tournament.

Her best result in New York so far was reaching the final last year, where she faced Gauff, but this time she has the best chance of winning the whole thing. She dropped just one set on her way to the quarterfinals, having defeated Priscilla Hon, Lucia Bronzetti, Ekaterina Alexandrova in three sets and then Elise Mertens in straight sets in the fourth round.

“I just don’t want to leave here so early, you know,” said Sabalenka after her win against Mertens. “I just want to stay as long as possible and enjoy this beautiful place and the beautiful atmosphere.”

Iga Swiatek

Swiatek has spent her time in New York keeping her cool around superstars. Before her third-round win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Serena Williams was in the building facing the current world No. 1.

“I’m glad she follows tennis and my game because she told me she’s cheering me on,” Swiatek said after beating Pavlyuchenkova 6-4, 6-2. “It’s always nice to hear something like that from someone like Serena.”

Swiatek is already one of the greats in tennis, having already won five Grand Slam tournaments, four of which were on Parisian clay courts, the other at Flushing Meadows in 2022. Swiatek is playing well in New York. After her turbulent Olympics – where she entered as the favorite and finished with bronze – she is building well in New York. So far, she has defeated Kamilla Rakhimova, Ena Shibahara, Pavlyuchenkova and Liudmila Samsonova – the latter in straight sets. In this match, she was star-struck for the second time in two weeks after spotting actor Jason Sudeikis in the crowd.

“I try not to look at the screens, but tonight I saw him when I looked at the referee’s chair,” she said. “I wanted to stay focused and I hope he appreciates my attitude because that’s what Ted Lasso is all about.” In the quarterfinals she will face Jessica Pegula. The omens are good for Swiatek because she has won six of the nine matches and goes into the final as the favorite.

Karolina Muchova

Muchova goes into her quarterfinal against Beatriz Haddad Maia as the favorite – she was the one with the infamous fourth-round double bounce. And she knows what it takes to reach a Grand Slam final, having reached this stage at Roland Garros last year only to run into an impressive wall the size of Swiatek. Muchova’s fourth-round match against Jasmine Paolini was thrilling, given the Italian’s remarkable 2024 season that saw her reach the finals of both Roland Garros and Wimbledon. But Muchova made short work of Paolini, winning 6-3, 6-3. Muchova holds a 3-0 record against Haddad Maia and came into this tournament fresh, having played just one previous tournament on hard court in Cincinnati. “After a few matches, I feel like I’m building my game. I feel better every day on court. “I’m in the quarterfinals and I’m really grateful for that and we’ll see.”

Home hope: Jessica Pegula

Now that I’ve said Swiatek is the favorite in this matchup, Flushing Meadows can do wonderful things for home favorites. They brought Gauff home with a bang last year, and how great would it be if Pegula followed in her footsteps? She came into the US Open in superb form, having won in Toronto and reached the final in Cincinnati, where she lost to Sabalenka. She is yet to drop a set at the US Open – including retiring Shelby Rogers in the first round – and is desperate to end her losing streak of six consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinals. Sevens are all good things? Well, she is certainly building a compelling case. Against Diana Shnaider in the fourth round, she hit 22 winners and resiliently fended off seven of nine break points, so why couldn’t Pegula win the whole thing?

“It depends on the day, how you feel, how you play, what happens once you’re out there,” Pegula said before her match against Swiatek. “I don’t know how I’m going to feel until I literally play the first game.”

Men’s singles

Jannik Sinner

Sinner has remained focused in this whirlwind. As the men’s singles draw descends into chaos, Sinner is one of the few reliable constants. But he has had to face questions at this Grand Slam tournament about the two positive tests for banned substances in March. That led to criticism from current and former professionals and questions about the sport’s doping policies. Despite all that, he managed to get through the draw. He is aware of the dangers of losing concentration.

“If you drop a little bit from your level at the end – be it mentally, in tennis or physically – it has a huge impact on the result,” said Sinner after his third-round win against Christopher O’Connell.

In his first two rounds, he beat MacKenzie McDonald in four sets and then beat Alex Michelsen in three sets. After O’Connell, he faced favorite Tommy Paul, whom he beat in two sets. And as for the quarterfinals? Well, it’s 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev. Sinner will be the favorite, and he’s the only player in the men’s singles to have reached the quarterfinals of all four Grand Slam tournaments this year, but he’ll have their last meeting fresh in his mind.

“There will be a lot of rallies, so hopefully I’ll be physically ready,” Sinner said. “It will be a physical and also a mental match. I won in Australia, then he won at Wimbledon. That was five sets. So hopefully it will be a good match.”

Alexander Zverev

Zverev is no stranger to late finishes. He holds that record from 2022, when his win over Jenson Brooksby at the Abierto Mexico tournament ended at 4:55. Playing his third-round match against Tomas Martin Etcheverry until 2:35 was far from ideal, however. Still, he managed to recover and win his fourth-round match against Brandon Nakashima in four sets to secure his place in the quarterfinals against Taylor Fritz.

To do that, he’ll have to get past a partisan crowd on Tuesday, but Zverev has been in brilliant form this year, reaching the final of Roland Garros and the semifinals of the Australian Open. He has a falling out with Fritz, so it could get heated. Zverev criticised the noise from Fritz’s box when the American beat him in the round of 16 at Wimbledon this year, and they had a tense moment at the net. Zverev has reached two Grand Slam finals – the 2024 French Open and the 2020 US Open – and is desperate to get over the finish line.

“I just have to win one more set than the last two times in the final. I’ll give everything I can,” said Zverev. “Everything else is beyond my control. I’ll try my best and hope that at some point in my career it will be enough.”

Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev knows what it takes to win this tournament, having triumphed in 2021. He can boast about Sinner, having won their last meeting at Wimbledon and having a 7-5 record against him overall. But it is Sinner who has had the edge in this rivalry of late. Before this grass-court meeting, Sinner won the previous five encounters, including the Australian Open final.

“I will try to think more about Wimbledon than the Australian Open,” Medvedev said after defeating Nuno Borges 6-0, 6-1, 6-3 in just 1:51.

There is an argument that the winner of this quarterfinal will also win the tournament. So far, Medvedev has dropped one set at the 2024 US Open – in the opening match against Dusan Lajovic – and after that it was easy against Fabian Marozsan, Flavio Cobolli and Borges. But Sinner will be a far more difficult task.

“I’ve had incredible battles with Jannik,” Medvedev said. “It’s going to be very physical for both of us.”

Home hope: Taylor Fritz

Frances Tiafoe is definitely in the running and has a great chance of getting past Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals, but Fritz may have a slightly better chance of winning the whole thing. Fritz reached the quarterfinals of both the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year and is keen to go one step further and face Zverev.

Fritz has looked unsettled at times during these two weeks, with frustration boiling over – as in his four-set win over Casper Ruud – but he is playing brilliantly and will do everything he can to beat Zverev. He has also seen how the draw has turned out. While Alcaraz and Djokovic have been eliminated, he has overtaken Camilo Ugo, Matteo Berrettini, Francisco Comesana and Ruud and is looking to continue his journey.

“(With) the draw, it’s impossible not to know that there are more possibilities given how the draw has turned out,” Fritz said. “For me, it’s still the same as always. I take one match at a time. I take care of the person who’s in front of me and then we’ll see. The success in the Grand Slam tournaments has been nice, but I’m a bit tired of only making it to the quarterfinals and I definitely want to move on.”

Exterior shot: Jack Draper

There’s something special about young Brits and the US Open. In 2021, it was Emma Raducanu who rose from qualifying to win the women’s singles. While Jack Draper’s career is by no means so exceptional – he won the Stuttgart Open and beat Carlos Alcaraz at Queen’s this year – Draper has been considered a future Grand Slam challenger in British tennis for years. Draper, 22, has managed to combine his incredible skill with a robust physique – thanks to the work of Steve Kotze and Will Herbert – and the two work brilliantly together. And what about his achievement in reaching the men’s quarter-finals in New York? That’s the first time since a certain Sir Andy Murray did it in 2016.

“Following in Andy’s footsteps and reaching the quarterfinals here is a huge achievement for me,” said Draper after his fourth-round win over Tomas Machac. “But I think I just have to keep going because I know there’s still room for improvement and I hope I can go even further in the tournament. I’m really, really proud of this achievement and hope I can do even more.”

Draper will face Alex De Minaur in the quarterfinals and ESPN’s Brad Gilbert described the young Brit as a “real threat” to the overall victory.