The US Navy has unveiled a new strategic document aimed at countering China’s growing military presence in the Indo-Pacific region. The document emphasizes the need to prepare for a possible conflict with China by 2027 and points to possible plans by the People’s Liberation Army to invade Taiwan this year.

On September 19, the U.S. Navy unveiled a new strategic document focused on countering Communist China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

“The Chairman of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has directed his armed forces to prepare for war by 2027 – our readiness will exceed theirs,” the document said.

The Navy’s navigation plan includes two main goals: preparing for a possible conflict with China by 2027 and strengthening its long-term strategic advantage. To achieve these goals, the Navy aims to implement Project 33 and strengthen its role within the joint warfare ecosystem.

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Project 33: Strengthening Naval Capabilities

At the heart of the Navy’s strategy is Project 33, an initiative outlined in the 2024 Navigation Plan (NAVPLAN) for the U.S. Navy. Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Lisa Franchetti describes this as “overarching strategic leadership to improve our Navy’s readiness.”

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The Navy’s goal is to integrate proven robotic and autonomous capabilities by 2027, with a focus on their practical application in wartime scenarios.

Areas of focus begin with addressing maintenance delays on ships, submarines and aircraft. The next priority is to scale robotic and autonomous systems to quickly integrate additional platforms.

Earlier this year, the Navy established a new role for drones and robotic warfare and commissioned an unmanned operations unit in the Middle East.

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Other key areas include establishing command centers for success on a distributed battlefield, recruiting and retaining top talent, providing high quality services, investing in warfighter capabilities, and restoring critical infrastructure that supports shore-based power delivery and projected.

China’s Taiwan ambitions

The strategic document comes amid escalating tensions between China and Taiwan. Although Taiwan has been de facto independent since 1949, China continues to view it as part of its territory and insists on eventual reunification, possibly by force.

Since Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) became Taiwan’s president in 2016, China has increased its diplomatic and military pressure on the island. Tsai, along with DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, advocates for Taiwan’s status as an independent state and rejects China’s claims.

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Chinese state television recently aired a documentary series titled “Quenching,” which provides a dramatic portrayal of a possible People’s Liberation Army (PLA) amphibious assault on Taiwan.

One episode featured a nationalist display of military might, including drone operations, missile drills and electronic warfare exercises that simulated an attack on Taiwan’s defenses.

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Retired Rear Admiral Mike Studeman, former chief of US Naval Intelligence, has warned that Chinese forces are preparing for a possible invasion or blockade of Taiwan, possibly within the next decade.

According to an April 2024 Washington Times report, in talks with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, Vice President-elect Hsiao Bi-khim and senior national security leaders, they expressed concern about a Chinese invasion and fears that the U.S. could withdraw from the international one “Isolate and withdraw” arena.

In June 2024, US President Joe Biden indicated that he did not rule out the use of military force to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, reaffirming US support for Taiwan’s defense capabilities.

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Dynamics of sea power

China’s naval capabilities have grown significantly in recent years. The United States would need robust naval capabilities to support Taiwan in a potential conflict with China, but it faces significant limitations. On the other hand, China’s naval strength continues to grow.

A 2024 report by the US Congressional Research Service found that between 2015 and 2020, China’s navy surpassed the US in the number of combat ships.

With over 370 platforms, including submarines, amphibious ships and aircraft carriers, China’s fleet is expected to grow to 395 ships by 2025 and 435 ships by 2030. China currently operates two aircraft carriers – the Liaoning and Shandong – and in May 2024 the third carrier Fujian began sea trials.

In contrast, the U.S. Navy has approximately 292 active combat ships, with forecasts calling for a fleet of 290 ships by 2030. This disparity highlights the growing gap between the two nations’ naval forces.

Strategic Challenges of the U.S. Navy

The US Navy’s latest strategic document outlines the key challenges it faces: “The Navy must address fundamental problems – ship, submarine and aircraft construction, recruiting, munitions production, software procurement, infrastructure and maintenance – while at the same time “Continue to stay one step ahead of adaptive adversaries.”

The document emphasizes the urgency of integrating robotic and autonomous systems: “Near-term operational challenges require that we integrate proven robotic and autonomous capabilities as quickly as possible.” In doing so, we must focus on how we use these systems in war. By 2027, we will integrate proven robotic and autonomous systems for routine use by the commanders who will deploy them.”

Additionally, it emphasizes that achieving all of the Navigation Plan’s objectives is critical to deploying the people and capabilities needed for victory in 2027 and beyond. The navigation plan emphasizes the importance of working with Congress to secure critical supply chains and envisions maritime operations centers at each fleet headquarters.

“By 2027, the Navy will be prepared for sustained combat as part of a joint and combined force, prioritizing the People’s Republic of China as the primary challenge and focusing on strengthening the joint warfighting framework,” the document said.

As global tensions continue to rise, the U.S. Navy’s strategic preparations underscore the complex and evolving nature of international maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region.