UFC 306 takes place tonight at The Sphere in Las Vegas, headlined by Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili and a three-way fight between Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso.

Before these matches, there are a number of exciting preliminary fights that could steal the show even before the pay-per-view begins.

Here are my free preliminary predictions for UFC 306 from Sin City.

Preliminary tips and predictions for UFC 306

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Qileng Aori
• Prediction: Rosas Jr. ML (-950 at Bet99)
• Best bet: Rosas by decision (+405 at Bet99)

Ignacio Bahomondes vs Manuel Torres
• Prediction: Torres ML (-130 at Bet99)
• Best bet: Torres ML (-130 at Bet99)

Norma Dumont vs Irene Aldana
• Forecast: Dumont ML (-110 at Bet99)
• Best bet: Dumont by decision (+130 at Bet99)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

UFC 306 preliminary odds and tips

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Qileng Aori fight odds

Method of victory	Rosas Jr.	Aori
To win directly	-950	+675
Win by KO/TKO	+380	+1,450
Win by decision	+405	+1,500
Win through submission	-180	+4,500
Pull	+2,500	+2,500

Odds from 9-14.

The general consensus is that Aori will test Rosas Jr. but won’t overly threaten him. That’s not surprising, given that the 19-year-old is still developing and he’ll be going up against an established veteran with 36 fights under his belt. However, Aori has trouble with wrestlers and is easy to hit, which is why wrestling prodigy Rosas Jr. is the clear favorite to win.

Although striking might be Rosas’ weakness, Aori’s defense is not strong enough, nor is he a strong hitter, to keep Rosas off him. Expect Rosas to wrestle and dominate his opponent for the duration of the fight, controlling him on his way to a point victory.

forecast: Rosas Jr. Moneyline (-950 at Bet99)
Best bet: Rosas Jr. by decision (+405 at Bet99)

Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres fight odds

Method of victory	Bahamas	Torres
To win directly	+110	-130
Win by KO/TKO	+235	+200
Win by decision	+575	+640
Win through submission	+900	+475
Pull	+2,500	+2,500

Odds from 9-14.

Manuel Torres has knocked out his last four opponents in the first round, but this fight should be different because Ignacio Bahamondes is a great striker and has never been knocked out in his MMA career.

Bahamondes has more experience, can throw powerful punches of his own and since Torres starts so aggressively, he only needs to survive the first round to throw his opponent into the deep end.

However, Torres is extremely dangerous and since it will likely come to a brawl, I can’t bet against his power. We’ll see how durable Bahamondes is – he could survive a prolonged onslaught due to his size – but I would be comfortable using Torres on the moneyline.

forecast: Torres moneyline (-130 at Bet99)
Best bet: Torres moneyline (-130 at Bet99)

Norma Dumont vs. Irene Aldana Fight Odds

Method of victory	Dumont	Aldana
To win directly	-110	-110
Win by KO/TKO	+2,000	+640
Win by decision	+130	+135
Win through submission	+850	+2,250
Pull	+2,500	+2,500

Odds from 9-14.

This fight pits Irene Aldana, one of the division’s best hitters and former title challenger, against one of the division’s best wrestlers and most promising young talents, Norma Dumont.

Dumont has shown potential for a long time and will need to put on a strong performance here. If she can’t get Aldana to the mat early, she will be torn apart in stand-up – just like she did against Germaine de Randamie.

Unlike de Randamie, Aldana can do more damage and has better foot game, making it even more difficult for Dumont to knock her down. However, Aldana has trouble fending off takedowns and her opponent can’t knock her down well enough.

If Aldana can’t dictate the tempo, she’ll have trouble getting on the offensive and will be vulnerable to takedowns. I believe Dumont can do that by staying patient in the pocket and eventually Aldana will give her an opportunity for a takedown.

forecast: Dumont Moneyline (-110 at Bet99)
Best bet: Dumont by decision (+130 at Bet99)

Pages on this topic