The UCF Knights hit the road for their first Big 12 game of the season, taking on the TCU Horned Frogs. The Knights have a record of 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as road favorites, while the Horned Frogs have a record of 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as road underdogs, including 4 clear wins. This is a situation that has struggled for Gus Malzahn’s team, which had a 1-4 record in Big 12 road games just a year ago. They have signed talented players like QB KJ Jefferson through the portal, but UCF has made it clear that they want to lean on the run game this season, with 111 run attempts compared to just 39 pass attempts through two games. The Knights have played New Hampshire and Sam Houston State so far, so it will be much harder for the Knights to handle TCU’s front seven. Additionally, TCU is in the top 25 in speed and loves to throw it, which will likely force the Knights into more passing situations.

The Frogs’ defense has looked solid over the last two games, and barring two controversial penalties and a garbage time field goal call, they would have limited Stanford to 17 points on the road. TCU’s defensive unit ranks 33rd in EPA per run and 15th in defensive pass success rate. The Frogs’ offensive system relies heavily on the passing game and relies on QB Josh Hoover to make plays with his arm, and he has done a solid job over the last two games. The Knights’ defensive line has failed to generate any pressure so far, managing just one sack this season despite facing weaker opponents. All in all, I’m betting on the Frogs to get the cover at home.

TCU +2.5 (-110) available at time of publication. Playable up to +1.5.

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