With 11 games left, the Minnesota Twins could be in the wildcard race until the final weekend, and tonight they face a tough matchup against the rock-solid Cleveland Guardians.

Minnesota evened the series against its AL Central rivals last night on a crucial two-run dinger by Willi Castro, but my predictions for the Twins vs. Guardians game are that Cleveland will respond tonight.

For more information, check out my MLB picks for Wednesday, September 18.

Prediction for Twins vs. Guardians

My best bet
Guardians Moneyline (-114 at Pinnacle)

My analysis

While all the attention is focused on the AL East race between the Yankees and the Orioles, there has been less attention surrounding the Cleveland Guardians’ outstanding season.

But at 87-65, the Guardians are an AL stronghold and on the verge of securing the AL Central crown. Most importantly, this is an impressive home team, boasting a 46-28 record at Progressive Field this year, and I’m betting Cleveland will extend that record even further against the Minnesota Twins.

The Guardians have a 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings between these teams – and they have won four of the last five in Cleveland. The pitchers’ duel is another aspect worth examining, and I believe it favors the hosts.

Bailey Ober and Tanner Bibee both enter 2024 with impressive numbers, but they’ve fallen on tougher times in recent weeks. That’s especially true for Ober, who has a 3.90 ERA and 0.99 WHIP this season but has posted a 5.86 ERA in his last five appearances — and the Twins have lost four of those games.

Bibee has now played against Minnesota three times in 2024. He won two of those games, posting an ERA of 1.50, and Cleveland won all three encounters.

With playoff pressure mounting, the Twins are 4-6 in their last 10 games (and just 10-18 since August 18), and I expect that swing to continue tonight.

Twins vs Guardians – Accumulator bet on the same game (SGP)

Guardians Moneyline

Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases

Tanner Bibee – Under 6.5 strikeouts

A Jose Ramirez prop seems like a no-brainer for my SGP, as the Cleveland star is riding a 10-game hitting streak. He had a late double last night and two singles in Monday’s series opener — plus two doubles and a home run against Tampa Bay over the weekend.

Ramirez also has a great track record against Ober, going 5-of-16 with two doubles and a home run, and seems to be hitting his stride at the perfect time for the hosts’ postseason hopes. He’s posted a .296 batting average at Progressive Field this season, and I see him as the driving factor for the Guardians tonight.

I also evaluate Bibee’s strikeout total. Although the right-hander had nine Ks against the Rays on Friday, he has had seven or more strikeouts in just two of his last 10 starts, making the over at 6.5 Ks a risky bet.

There hasn’t been much offensive action so far in this series, but it’s important to remember that the Twins rank just outside the top 10 in hits and runs – and that lineup should give Bibee a lot of work tonight, especially with Carlos Correa shining at the top of the order.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Twins vs Guardians odds

Twins vs Guardians live odds

Opening odds for Twins vs. Guardians

• Money line: Minnesota -105 | Cleveland -115
• Execute line: Minnesota -1.5 (+165) | Cleveland +1.5 (-200)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)

Twins vs Guardians Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• The Guardians are clear favorites going into the race as they are approaching the 90-win mark and have lost only two of their last seven series.
• The Twins have finished under the F5 team total in 14 of their last 20 games, but the over record for Minnesota this year is 76-69-6.
• Cleveland is allowing just 3.91 runs per game this season, thanks in part to its relievers’ impressive 2.67 ERA.
• Seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams have seen seven runs or less scored, so don’t expect any fireworks tonight.

Gemini vs. Guardian Trend

With Cleveland’s pitchers working hard, the under is 8-1-1 in the Guardians’ last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Guardians here.

Twins vs Guardians Match Info

Twins vs Guardians: Latest Injuries

Twins vs Guardians Weather

Pages on this topic