Trump’s plan could bring forward the bankruptcy of Social Security, including the disability program, by two years, from 2035 to 2033, the Tax Foundation estimates. Medicare bankruptcy could even be brought forward by six years, from 2036 to 2030.

“President Trump delivered on his promise to protect Social Security and Medicare in his first term” and will “vigorously protect Social Security and Medicare in his second term,” Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

She said Trump would stimulate the U.S. economy and strengthen Social Security, “while eliminating taxes on Social Security for America’s well-earning retirees.”

“In the short term, (Trump’s plan) will provide a fairly modest benefit to retirees on average,” said Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. “But almost all of the benefit will go to high-income retirees who don’t really need it.”

According to an analysis by the Tax Policy Center published on August 1, the tax cut could save U.S. households an average of $550 in 2025. However, households earning between $32,000 and $60,000 could expect an average tax cut of $90, while those earning $32,000 or less could not benefit at all.

About 40% of Americans who receive Social Security benefits pay federal income tax, and several states impose taxes on Social Security.

The formula for calculating federal income tax is based on “total income,” which includes your adjusted gross income, tax-free interest, and half of your Social Security benefits.

If your total income is between $25,000 and $34,000 – or $32,000 and $44,000 for married couples filing jointly – up to 50% of your Social Security benefits may be taxable. Once your total income exceeds these amounts, up to 85% of your Social Security benefits may be taxable.

The thresholds do not take inflation into account, so “it hits middle-income people who receive Social Security benefits and probably a pension or 401(k) plan,” Gleckman said.