- Tropical Storm Hone will pass just south of Hawaii through Sunday.
- Parts of Hawaii will experience heavy rain and strong winds.
- A tropical storm warning has been issued for Big Island.
Tropical Storm Hone is expected to bring heavy rains and gusty winds to Hawaii this weekend, particularly the Big Island.
Here is the current status of Hone and what’s next: The storm is currently near Hawaii’s Big Island and is expected to continue to strengthen over the weekend, possibly reaching near hurricane strength.
Hone’s latest forecast shows the storm’s center likely to be south of Hawaii, but its impacts will extend north of that point to parts of the island chain.
Tropical storm conditions are expected on the Big Island through Sunday morning, with the strongest gusts occurring where winds blow downslope, over headlands and through passes, the National Hurricane Center said.
In addition to the gusty winds, some drier, warmer air on the leeward sides of each island could be enough to cause the fires to spread quickly over the weekend. Drought conditions remain throughout Hawaii.
Projected path
(The red shaded area indicates the possible path of the tropical cyclone’s center. It is important to note that the impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) of a tropical cyclone typically extend beyond its forecast path.)
These are the effects expected in Hawaii: Heavy rain and strong winds will move across the Big Island on Sunday and may continue into Monday. A flood warning has been issued for the Big Island.
Rain will be heaviest on windward and southeast-facing slopes and could total 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of up to 15 inches on the higher peaks of the Big Island. Flooding is possible with excessive rainfall.
Starting Sunday, at least some bands of locally heavy rain could spread across the rest of the Hawaiian Islands.
All of the Hawaiian Islands will experience waves from Hone until at least Sunday. Life-threatening rip currents will pose a danger to beachgoers. Stronger currents are also possible between the islands.
(15-minute details: For even more detailed weather data in your area, check out your 15-minute detailed forecast in our Premium Pro Experience.)
Long-term precipitation forecast
(This should be taken as a rough forecast of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts of rain may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms become established over a period of several hours.)
Locals should also keep a close eye on Hurricane Gilma, which could bring more rain and gusty winds to Hawaii later next week.
Hawaii’s hurricane history
The central Pacific basin – between 140 and 180 degrees west longitude – sees an average of four to five tropical cyclones per year, according to Dr. Rick Knabb, hurricane expert at The Weather Channel and former director of the National Hurricane Center. About two-thirds of these systems move westward from the eastern Pacific basin.
(MORE: Dive deep into Hawaii’s hurricane history)
From 1950 to 2021, about 30 hurricanes passed within 200 nautical miles of the Big Island, Maui, Honolulu or Kauai, according to NOAA’s historical hurricane database.
Almost every system that has approached Hawaii from the east since 1950 and penetrated at least to the latitude of the Big Island (Hawaii) in the north has weakened to a tropical storm or depression by the time it reaches the islands.
There are several reasons why this happens so often:
- Drier, more stable air from the subtropical highlands in northeast Hawaii ultimately prevents thunderstorms from forming permanently and remaining concentrated near the cyclone center.
- Wind shear (the change in wind speed and/or direction with altitude) is typically stronger near the Hawaiian Islands and causes thunderstorms to be displaced from the center of the cyclone.
- The cooler temperatures at the ocean surface in the Pacific east of Hawaii’s Big Island ensure that the air above it stays slightly cooler. This makes the atmosphere more stable and less prone to the formation and maintenance of thunderstorms.
