From Chris Dolce, Caitlin Kaiser, Jonathan Belles
less than an hour ago
- The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor two areas with possible tropical development.
- One of them is currently in the Caribbean and could develop near Yucatan or in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
- Another disturbance is observed closer to Africa.
Tropical development is possible in two areas monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), one in the Caribbean and another in the far eastern Atlantic.
It’s been two weeks since the last time a named storm (Hurricane Ernesto) passed through the Atlantic basin. Here’s the latest information on when the next Atlantic storm, to be named Francine, might form.
Development potential in the Caribbean and the Gulf: This system is an area of unsettled weather, referred to as a tropical wave, located in the central Caribbean. It is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves westward.
Tropical development is possible later this week or over the weekend when this system reaches the northwestern Caribbean and southwestern waters of the Gulf of Mexico. At that point, atmospheric conditions could become more favorable to allow the formation of a tropical depression or storm.
An obstacle to the development of this system so far is the stable air, which limits its ability to generate and organize persistent thunderstorms.
In the short to medium term, regardless of development, this system could bring heavy rains and gusty winds to parts of Jamaica, Central America, and Mexico. It is still unclear what threat, if any, this system could pose to the continental United States.
Attention is also being paid to developments in the eastern Atlantic: The other area that shows promise for development is just off the coast of Africa. This system now has a medium chance of development as it moves west-northwest through the Atlantic Ocean this week.
In Cape Verde, this system could cause rain and gusty winds over the next one to two days.
If both systems continue to develop, there will be a small race to name Francine. The name Gordon will succeed Francine on the list of names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, when both storms would receive a name.
Typical for this season: The two areas of possible tropical development are in areas that typically experience activity at this time of year. September is the month with the most hurricanes in the Atlantic, so it is the month with the greatest potential for development during the six-month hurricane season.
