(BIVN) – As expected by meteorologists, a tropical depression has formed in the central Pacific about 980 miles east of Hilo.
The storm is moving west at about 22.5 km/h and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm during the day.
“Tropical Depression One will approach the Hawaiian Islands over the next few days, possibly bringing heavy rainfall and dangerous surf and rip current conditions,” the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said at 5 a.m. HST. “A tropical storm warning may be required for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands tonight or Friday.”
“A wet and windy period is expected, possibly beginning as early as Friday night in the eastern part of the state and then extending across the state beginning Saturday and into early next week,” said the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
From the Central Pacific Hurricane Center discussion, posted at 5 a.m. HST:
The low pressure system well east and southeast of the Hawaiian Islands became better organized overnight, and persistent deep convection now exists over the low-level circulation center. As a result, the first tropical depression of the season has formed in the Central Pacific Basin. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 2.5 PHFO and 1.5 SAB. A mix of these estimates suggests an initial intensity of 30 knots.
Tropical Depression One’s initial motion is estimated at 270/12 knots. This general motion is expected to continue over the next few days as the system is guided northward by a large subtropical ridge. A reduction in forward speed and a slight turn to the west-northwest are forecast for days 4 and 5 as weakness develops in the subtropical ridge to the north. The track forecast follows consensus guidelines closely.
The forecast for Tropical Depression One will remain in a low to moderate vertical wind shear environment over the next few days, with warm sea surface temperatures of 27-28°C and adequate moisture in the deep layer. This should result in gradual strengthening of the system as it moves steadily westward, and a tropical storm is likely to form later today. Late this weekend and early next week, the tropical cyclone will experience an increase in westerly vertical wind shear and the possibility of an inflow of drier mid-level air. This should result in gradual weakening of the system. The intensity forecast is close to consensus intensity over the next few days, with the system approaching hurricane strength over the weekend, but then slightly below consensus forecast on days 4 and 5.
Behind Tropical Depression One-C, Hurricane Gilma is located about 2,000 miles east of Hilo.
Gilma is now a major hurricane and continues to strengthen over the open waters of the eastern Pacific. “As the storm continues to move westward, cooler waters will likely further the weakening of the system over the weekend and into early next week,” the National Hurricane Center reported.
