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Tigers approach the playoffs: The magic number has dropped to 3
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Tigers approach the playoffs: The magic number has dropped to 3

DETROIT – All four teams in the race for a wild-card spot in the American League won their games on Wednesday.

For some, it meant staying alive. For the Detroit Tigers, it was another step toward their first playoff appearance since 2014.

After beating the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday, the Tigers’ magic number is now three, meaning any combination of Detroit wins and Minnesota Twins losses that add up to three will put the Tigers in the postseason.

Here’s what needs to happen if the Tigers leave:

4:0: You are in
3-1: You are in
2-2: The Twins need to win 4-0 to overtake them
1-3: Twins must go 3-1
0-4: Twins must go 2-2

The earliest possible clinch date for the Tigers is Friday night.

WILD CARD STANDARDS

Team Wins losses Games behind it
Baltimore 88 70 +4
City 84 74
TIGER 84 74
Minnesota 82 76 2
Seattle 82 77 2.5

(The complete ranking can be found here)

The Seattle Mariners (82-77) are still in the race, but can hardly afford to make any mistakes: They have to play 3-0, the Tigers or the Kansas City Royals 0-4 and the Twins at most 2-2.

The Red Sox (80-79) and Rays (78-80) were officially eliminated on Wednesday and therefore lost their place in our charts.

CURRENT PLAYOFF CHANCES (Wildcard Candidates)

team Fangraphs Baseball Reference
Baltimore pinched pinched
TIGER 91.2 93.4
City 85.2 85
Minnesota 22.1 20.4
Seattle 1.5 1.2

The Orioles (88-70) have secured a playoff spot and could secure a first wildcard spot with a win or loss for the Tigers.

The only scenario in which the Tigers could overtake the Orioles, grab the No. 1 wild card seed, and host a wild card series would be if the Tigers were 4-0 and the Orioles were 0-4.

The Orioles could win the AL East 4-0 while the Yankees finish 0-4.

Both scenarios are unlikely. It is much more likely that Baltimore will win the first round of the playoffs.

If the playoffs started today, the AL matchups would look like this.

  • Byes: Division winner No. 1, New York Yankees, and division winner No. 2, Cleveland Guardians.
  • Tigers (third wildcard) at Astros (division winner No. 3)
  • Royals (second wildcard) at Orioles (first wildcard)

Would the Astros or Orioles be a better opponent for the Tigers in the Wild Card Series? That’s not entirely clear. But if the Tigers overtake the Royals in the standings, they would be sent to Baltimore instead of Houston.

REMAINING SCHEDULE

The Tigers probably have the easiest final games of the season, the Orioles perhaps the toughest.

oriole: at the New York Yankees (1 game), at Minnesota (3 games)

Royal: in Washington (1 game), in Atlanta (3 games)

tiger: Tampa Bay (1 game), Chicago White Sox (3 games)

Twins: Miami (1 game), Baltimore (3 games)

Sailors: in Oakland (3 games)

TIEBREAKER

There are 11 possible tiebreaker scenarios involving the four teams vying for a spot: the Tigers, Twins, Royals and Mariners, but the likelihood of the more complex tiebreakers coming to fruition is slim.

The Twins have won the season series against all three other teams, but that head-to-head advantage may no longer be enough to save them.

Tiebreaker between two teams:

Twins about Royals

Royals vs Tigers

Gemini over Tiger

Twins beat Mariners

Tigers beat Mariners

Royals beat Mariners

The Royals and Mariners were tied in the season series, but the Royals won the tiebreaker between the two teams based on their record within the division.

However, the fact that the Royals and Mariners tied their season series would impact the three- and four-team games and potentially benefit the Tigers.

Tiebreaker for three teams:

Gemini, Royals, Tiger

Twins, Royals, Mariners

Tigers, Royals, Mariners

Twins, Tigers, Mariners

Tiebreaker for four teams:

Twins, Tigers, Royals, Mariners

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