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The Yankees secure their place in the playoffs after Julio Rodríguez’s baserunning disaster
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The Yankees secure their place in the playoffs after Julio Rodríguez’s baserunning disaster

SEATTLE, WA – SEPTEMBER 18: Julio Rodriguez #44 of the Seattle Mariners reacts in the dugout after suffering a strikeout in the fifth inning of a game against the New York Yankees at T-Mobile Park on September 18, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)

Julio Rodríguez’s survival instinct cost the Seattle Mariners a big win on Wednesday.

Seattle trailed the New York Yankees 2-1 in the bottom of the 10th inning. Rodríguez began the run at second base and was soon 90 feet away from tying the game on a single by Cal Raleigh. At this point, the Mariners still had no outs and the middle of the order was ahead.

Randy Arozarena started things off by reaching a 2-2 score against Yankees relief pitcher Ian Hamilton. And then everything went haywire for the Mariners.

Arozarena swung at a slider from Hamilton for strike three and missed, losing his bat. The bat whizzed down the third base line, causing Rodríguez to jump out of the way and then run away from the basepath. Rodríguez may have just been relaxing after a major scare, but unfortunately the ball was still in play.

A quick throw to third base and Rodríguez was out.

Using Fangraphs’ win probability, this single play increased the Mariners’ chance of winning from 64.8% to 8.9%, a 55.9% swing. Justin Turner struck out swinging in the next at-bat to end the game, a 2-1 Yankees victory.

With this victory, the Yankees became the second team in the MLB to secure a playoff spot. The Milwaukee Brewers also secured a spot on Wednesday. For Rodríguez, it was the continuation of the worst season of his career.

All of that would be bad for any team, but it’s especially brutal for the Mariners, as this was their second straight game with a baserunning disaster. Victor Robles made perhaps the most puzzling mistake of the entire season on the basepaths on Wednesday when he tried to steal home with the score 3-0, the bases loaded and two outs in the first inning.

He was caught, ending a threat that had the Mariners one ball away from an easy run. To make matters worse, Robles injured his hand on the play and was not included in Wednesday’s lineup.

Both errors went well beyond the usual TOOTBLAN (throwing like a sucker on the basepaths), but that brand of baseball has been something of a trademark for the 77-75 Mariners this season, in which they are battling for a playoff spot despite boasting one of the best rotations in baseball and being acquired just before the trade deadline.

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