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FT editor Roula Khalaf selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The author is the author of “In Wartime: Stories from Ukraine”
Georgia is disoriented. As the nation eyes elections next month, many opponents of the ruling Georgian Dream party believe it will do anything to stay in power. Russian leaders are already predicting a violent outcome to the election. After years of being integrated into Euro-Atlantic structures, Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s de facto leader, sensed that he and those in his camp were losing power and has steered the country away from that course. Georgia now finds itself in no man’s land between the West and the Russian-British world.
Western politicians must prepare for a comprehensive crisis in Georgia and have a plan ready.
The mood in Tbilisi is feverish. Some are reminded of the 2012 parliamentary elections, when Ivanishvili defeated Mikheil Saakashvili. Saakashvili came to power in 2004 and his first four years were full of optimism and progress. But then, in the wake of the Russian military intervention in Georgia in 2008 and the global financial crisis, his government descended into authoritarianism, violence and corruption. This trend has repeated itself under Ivanishvili.
In the spring, tens of thousands of people demonstrated against a Russian-style “agent law” for non-governmental organizations. This is not a harmless law aimed at financial transparency, but a law designed to eliminate watchdog organizations and others who track down corruption and hold the government accountable. The government is also preparing laws against LGBT “propaganda.” All of this is a tragedy.
The Ukraine war presented Georgia with a completely unexpected opportunity, which resulted in it being offered EU candidate status. Perhaps Ivanishvili, unlike most Georgians, never wanted this unexpected gift. Conforming to the bloc’s standards, at least to join, would mean a fundamental restructuring of the way the country is run, including its judiciary. But as a result of the government’s recent actions, the accession process has been put on hold, although Ivanishvili still promises EU membership by 2030.
Although activists are threatened and beaten, opposition leaders in Tbilisi are convinced that power is within reach. Ivanishvili has lost control, they say. He rails against a shady “party of global war” that funds NGOs and is determined to drag Georgia into a “second front war” against Russia. The opposition is diverse, but the ruling party refers to them all as the “collective UNM,” referring to the party of the now-imprisoned Saakashvili.
If only the people of Tbilisi voted, the opposition might have an easy time of it. But that is not the case. In the small town of Akhaltsikhe, near the border with Turkey, locals say they will always vote for the party in power. One reason is that many jobs in places like Akhaltsikhe depend on the municipality or the state. People fear that if there is a change of power, their boss will be replaced by someone from the winning party, who will in turn give jobs and contracts to their own friends and families.
People are intimidated, too. Tamuna Uchidze, who works for the Akhaltsikhe branch of the anti-corruption organization Transparency International, tells me she saw messages from a local university professor urging his students to attend an Ivanishvili rally. Otherwise, she says, their grades could suffer.
Irakli Lazarashvili, mayor of the Georgian Party, scoffs at the claim that his party is moving closer to Moscow. “Russia is our enemy,” he says. “Our path to Europe will never be stopped.”
Analysts and pollsters expect Georgian Dream and the opposition to each win about a third of the vote, with the rest undecided. This means that things could get dicey in October. Sergei Naryshkin, the director of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, has said that if the opposition is defeated, the US is planning a “Maidan of Tbilisi,” by which he means a coup. This is absurd. But if Georgian Dream does not win, it could still claim it for itself, provoking angry demonstrations and even violence.
If Tbilisi wins a fair victory, it will move further away from the West. If it loses but tries to hold on to power, Georgians will look to the West. In this case, the actions of these governments could be decisive. Eka Metreveli, head of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, says her country is currently moving towards neutrality and into the Russian sphere of influence. The vast majority of Georgians, she stresses, “do not want that.”
