From the odd timing and questionable fits to the fact that two contenders are coming off their best seasons in a generation and then decide to do something unnecessarily drastic, this is true of many Friday night blockbusters between the New York Knicks and Not joining the Minnesota Timberwolves makes a ton of sense.

After nine seasons, four All-Star appearances and a conference finals appearance just four months ago, Karl-Anthony Towns’ time in Minnesota is over. He’s heading to New York for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a protected first-round pick from the Pistons (he can’t go higher than 10th through 2027), in what could easily be described as a headline-grabbing transaction that probably won. It brought neither team closer to reaching the final.

The incentives on both sides make sense, if discouraging. Minny did this to terminate Towns’ extravagant four-year, $220 million contract (which includes a $61 million player option in 2028, when he will be 32). The franchise’s desire to exit was not surprising considering the exorbitant luxury tax burden and the cap sheet that easily exceeded the second frontcourt in the coming years. The chances of KAT completing this deal without a move have been slim since he put pen to paper in 2022. But the dilemma here, made clear during the Wolves’ impressive playoff run, is how good and important Towns clearly was to a team that really valued his size and unique offensive skills. There were blips and dry spells in the postseason (particularly during the Western Conference finals), but Towns shined in critical outings against the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns, whether guarding Nikola Jokic or posting a 63.3 shooting percentage in the first two rounds achieved.

After its deepest upswing in decades, the hour for this trade has come to desperation. Why get rid of cities? Now? He’s still an All-Star in the middle of his prime who naturally complements and benefits from Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert. When these three shared the court last season, the Timberwolves absolutely ruled on both sides.

The value Wolves GM Tim Connelly got back wasn’t terrible, but it doesn’t make his basketball team any better. Here’s a generous overview: Randle has made two All-NBA teams in the last four years; DiVincenzo is resilient, versatile and made 40.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes in the 2023-24 season; and draft compensation in any form is significant for a team that previously had no picks available to trade this year or next.

Opting out of Towns’ contract also opens up some flexibility over the next few summers, especially if Randle (who has a $30.9 million player option next season and turns 30 in November) doesn’t stick around. Only Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, DiVincenzo and three rookie contracts are on the books in 2026-27. If Rob Dillingham succeeds and becomes a reliable starter, Minnesota can look to build something completely new around one of the world’s most electrifying superstars.

But in the here and now, as a team that is reasonably aiming to win the whole thing in 2025, this trade could come back to haunt the Wolves. Randle is inefficient, erratic and exudes a selfish streak. He is a career 33.3 percent 3-point shooter who made 31.1 percent of them last year. How narrow will Ant’s lanes be if there are no cities beyond the arc? How much wiggle room will Gobert have if he sets up a ball screen for Mike Conley? Naz Reid was necessary last year. Now it might be a little too central.

Perhaps the Wolves think they can grab a quick win in the Western Conference by replacing Towns’ bottom-line performance with Randle’s down-to-earth physicality; Adding DiVincenzo to a rotation that can truly utilize more accurate, high-volume motion shooters is a blessing. Maybe they don’t view the new-look Nuggets as the same kind of threat without Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, or don’t view Oklahoma City’s newfound greatness as an existential problem.

But get rid of cities NowUnlike waiting until February (when such a trade would likely still be on the table), the winning formula is fundamentally defeated. Remember: Towns’ inability to anchor an above-average defense was the main reason Minnesota mortgaged most of its future to bring in Gobert in the first place. I understand how dramatically the new CBA has changed every organization’s financial forecast, but for the Wolves to then turn around and cut KAT for a worse player who doesn’t make much sense on paper next to Gobert or Ant is… not ideal.

Edwards just lost someone who might as well have been created in a lab to be his ideal pick-and-roll partner. During their four years as teammates, they developed a working chemistry and dynamic that still offered room for growth. Randle is a bit more ponderous and less predictable. He needs the ball and doesn’t always make great decisions with it. His postseason resume is in the kitty litter. If any coach can make it all work out it’s Chris Finch, but that’s one of the last players in the league I’d want alongside Edwards, even if it’s just for a season before I rejigger my squad can.

The other side of this transaction is less troubling but hardly triumphant. Again, why did the Knicks make this trade in late September before they actually had a chance to see what Randle, OG Anunoby and the Nova Bros actually looked like together? While he understands the relationship some members of New York’s front office have with Towns, accommodating his massive contract and reckless tendencies on the court (on both ends) necessitates finding a cheaper short-term solution that wouldn’t cost DiVincenzo – their best Shooter and second-leading scorer in last year’s postseason – a preferable path.

New York received the best player in this deal. But Towns in New York isn’t necessarily who he could be in Minnesota, where Gobert was a safety net. Mitchell Robinson could potentially fill a similar role, but he’s constantly injured (including now and for the next few months) and doesn’t own four Defensive Player of the Year trophies. In other words, the Knicks didn’t solve their problems beforehand. What they did manage to do, however, was sign a highly talented player who can space the court, create a devastating two-man game in Jalen Brunson and, historically speaking, almost single-handedly break the ceiling of every offense he’s ever been a part of was, raises. (These on-off differences don’t lie.)

Towns makes a lot more sense than Randle compared to the remaining Nova crew, which is probably what the Knicks are telling themselves. Anunoby can check some fives to keep him out of the pick-and-roll if the Knicks put him in the middle. But imagining KAT being the fifth seed for long stretches of the playoffs doesn’t work so well. Imagine him going up against the Celtics’ five-out offense, or being forced to guard Joel Embiid, or trying to protect the rim and rebound while Giannis Antetokounmpo tries to attack them every 30 seconds. Violations lead to him and Brunson deflecting one ball after another. Maybe they’ll survive (having Mikal Bridges, Anunoby and Josh Hart will help, of course), but it’ll be a grind.

And then there’s this contract and all the ways it limits New York’s flexibility. Despite Brunson’s generous pay cut, Anunoby and Towns are taking up a significant portion of the cap, with an extension for Bridges in the works. You won’t be stuck in the second apron forever, but it’s an expensive bunch with few options to either meaningfully upgrade or move elsewhere if necessary. (Even after The Knicks cannot trade any of their own first-round picks in the 2025 draft.)

On the eve of training camp, with their realistic end goal being an NBA title, both teams must now discover a new identity. For the Timberwolves, it’s an unnecessary risk for purely financial reasons. For the Knicks, it’s a big bet on a weak star who has one of the least attractive contracts in the league. Neither scenario usually ends well.