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The Cubs’ offense has faded quickly after a hot August, along with their hopes for October
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The Cubs’ offense has faded quickly after a hot August, along with their hopes for October

CHICAGO — It was fun while it lasted. After an 8-1 road win, fans dreamed that a hot August could give the Chicago Cubs a run in September. Instead, a roaring offense that scored runs at a record pace returned to the Friendly Confines with a whimper.

After Saturday’s 2-0 loss to the New York Yankees, the Cubs have kept three of their last four clean sheets and are 1-4 entering a six-game home series. Their slim hopes of a playoff spot have all but vanished. A team that seemed to be turning things around now looks lost.

No one has any answers. It’s hard to explain when you see a lineup that seems unstoppable one day and then seemingly unable to even get a runner in scoring position the next.

“You’d like to say we should score five or six every day,” manager Craig Counsell said. “That’s pretty hard. But of course you have to go on offense every day to win games in these conditions, in this environment. No runs – you have to pitch perfectly. We pitched very well today, but obviously not well enough.”

That was a theme for this group in May and June, and the main reason they dug themselves so far down the standings. That they fought their way from nine games under .500 to above water is commendable. But it’s not enough.

This team needs to get better, especially on offense. The performance of the pitchers, especially the starting lineup, has been more than enough for this team to be competitive. But a team that scored the sixth most runs in baseball last summer has largely disappeared this season.

The question now is what this front office will do to ensure that this season’s offensive performance is not repeated in 2025.

“It’s a difficult season from an offensive standpoint,” team president Jed Hoyer said. “We’ve had these explosions lately. We were really good in April, then we struggled tremendously for two months.”

In April, the Cubs scored 149 runs, ranking ninth in baseball. Their offense was not great overall, however, as they posted a wRC+ of 99, which was pretty mediocre. They only excelled with runners in scoring position, and that led to a strong run-scoring month.

In May, their luck changed and their offensive output matched the runs scored. They were 24th in wRC+ (85) and 26th in runs scored (99). June was similar (99 runs scored), despite a slight improvement in their offensive output (95 wRC+).

They looked more respectable in July (110 runs scored and 101 wRC+), and August was an offensive feast (155 runs scored, 121 wRC+). Hoyer spent much of the trouble in May and June talking about how the Cubs would get out of their slump. A very similar lineup scored over 800 runs last season and was expected to perform at a similar level, if not better.

That obviously didn’t happen. Hoyer is aware of a big difference between last year’s group and this one.

“We don’t have a player who can have a season like Cody (Bellinger) did last year,” Hoyer said. “At times I felt like he carried our offense. Every big hit he was in the thick of it. If you add up his numbers, he was an MVP-nominated offensive player last year. This year we’re very balanced and have a lot of players who are having solid years now that they’ve come out of their slump in May and June. But we don’t have anyone who can do that. I think that’s the difference between this year and last year.”

Last season, Bellinger had a wRC+ of 135 with 26 home runs in 130 games played. This year, Bellinger has been solid with a wRC+ of 109, but the power has dropped off and the overall performance just isn’t there. Seiya Suzuki had a similar offensive output (132 wRC+) to Bellinger’s 2023 season, with less power. But Hoyer’s point is valid. Bellinger seemed to deliver every time there were men on base, finding ways to come through when it mattered most. No one has done that with this team this season. At least not on a regular basis.


Cody Bellinger’s offensive numbers are down this season after a stellar 2023. (Charles LeClaire / USA Today

“We don’t have the guy in the middle of the lineup this year who’s going to get six, seven or eight wins,” Hoyer said. “So we have to rely more on balance than consolidation of WAR. For a while we didn’t have consolidation of WAR and we didn’t have balance. I think we saw the results of that. Now we’re seeing the results of at least the balance of being able to score in every inning, and that makes a big difference.”

Looking at the Yankees’ talent alone, it doesn’t seem like they’re light years ahead of the Cubs. Yet they’re 22 games over .500 and fighting for first place. The Cubs are just two games over .500 and need a miracle to make the postseason. The big difference between the teams is obvious: Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are Yankees, and the Cubs don’t have comparable offensive talent.

Hoyer seems well aware that his team lacks that superstar in the middle of the lineup. This team isn’t bad. Offensively, there is talent on both sides of the lineup, especially now that Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya have emerged in the last two months and Dansby Swanson has come out of his early-season slump. A balanced lineup can go a long way.

But a superstar talent can be relied upon even when others stumble. But Hoyer and this front office have never shown they would do anything to acquire that kind of talent via free agents. So anyone who saw Soto come to town this weekend and hoped he would fall in love at Wrigley can probably stop dreaming. With Scott Boras as his agent and Soto entering his 26th season, this front office’s behavior would have to change dramatically to pay a very high price.

The good news for fans is that Hoyer is not fooled by a month of strong offensive performance.

“We have to be conscious of the fact that we were the May and June Cubs, too, and that we are that group, too,” Hoyer said. “I hope that with the emergence of Pete and Miguel and some of the other guys, that will become more stable. But I don’t think you can just take the good and eliminate the bad. You have to take everything and analyze it and make those decisions this offseason.”

So how will the team get better? Crow-Armstrong is likely the future center fielder. With Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, the Cubs seem to have their positions in the corner outfield secured. Swanson, who played much better in the second half, will not move to shortstop.

Isaac Paredes may be having a rough time right now, but it’s hard to say how much being traded from Tampa Bay midseason has affected him mentally. The Cubs will believe more than two seasons of good results than a month-plus since he was traded. It’s not that concerns about his pull-side power not translating to Wrigley were the problem. He just wasn’t hitting in any way.

One could go around the field and make an argument for each player. But the reality is that after another season without October baseball and an offense that has lacked consistency, management needs to look for ways to improve. Players who seem stuck in one spot cannot be considered safe when potential improvement is possible.

That’s how the front office thinks. Is Amaya’s strong performance of late a good thing? Certainly. And it will be considered. But if they can upgrade at catcher, the Cubs will look to do so aggressively. That should be the mindset of almost all outfielders.

The Cubs look at overall player value — “We try to think more in WAR terms than OPS,” Hoyer said — so defensive strength is a factor. But it’s hard to ignore the Cubs’ glaring inconsistencies on offense.

There are 20 games left to gather more information. Management will use every bit of it as they enter decision mode this winter. But unless Counsell pulls off a miracle, there will be no baseball on Chicago’s north side again in October. Something has to change, because that’s what’s been said for too many years now.

(Photo of Seiya Suzuki on August 30: Mitchell Layton / Getty Images)

Chicago Cubs

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