In their first real test of the college football season, the Texas Longhorns travel to Ann Arbor, Michigan to face the national champion Michigan Wolverines.
Both teams are extremely talented on both sides of the ball. Draft projections for 2025 call for up to six first-rounders for the two teams alone, and one could easily expect five or more All-Americans from the two schools.
The two teams will meet on the field at the largest stadium in North America, Michigan Stadium, or “The Big House,” where nearly 108,000 fans will scream in anticipation of a historic clash between two of the most victorious teams in CFB history. Both teams believe they will win this game, and both fan bases will do their best to fill the stands with Maize and Blue or Burnt Orange for the visitors.
FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the Longhorns as favorites by 7.5 points, which is surprising given the atmosphere of a Michigan home game and is a testament to the strength of the Longhorns team. But games aren’t decided by betting odds. They’re won in a variety of ways, with each team’s strengths battling to surpass the others.
Given the magnitude of this matchup, each team will need to bring their best to the table. Here are the keys to the game for Texas and Michigan.
Texas wins if …
… the running game can remain solid
The conditions for victory for these two powerhouses are clear: Michigan wants to control the pace, while Texas wants to set the pace.
The easiest way for any team to do this is to establish the running game, and it appears that Texas’ running game versus Michigan’s will be the deciding matchup of the game.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian’s pro offense is successful in many ways, but many of them are based on establishing the running game. Texas uses the run-pass option and play action as well as any team in the country, but these plays cannot be executed effectively without a functioning running game.
If Michigan’s run defense can limit Texas defenders to three or fewer yards per carry early on, the Wolverines can stay further back in coverage and challenge the Longhorns to throw to top cornerback Will Johnson. If Texas wants to be successful, the Longhorns will have to push Michigan defenders closer to the line, which can only be done with the threat of the run.
This will depend on three key factors: the ability of running back Jaydon Blue, the strength of the offensive line, and the creativity of Sarkisian’s plays. If Blue is able to fill the lead back role that guys like Brooks and Robinson have played so well in the past, or if Texas’ offensive line can move players like Mason Graham forward, or if Sarkisian has just the right amount of creativity to put players in advantageous positions, the Longhorns should be able to score enough points to outlast a weaker Michigan offense.
Michigan wins if …
…You control the clock
Although head coach Jim Harbaugh is no longer with the team, the Wolverines’ identity will likely remain the same. Control the clock with the running game, dominate the trenches and make big plays on defense. This matchup will be the epitome of the SEC vs. Big Ten identities.
Texas with its talented roster and strong offense. Michigan with its older team built in the trenches. Both styles of play can work, as Michigan proved last year, but will that success continue against the Longhorns?
Michigan no longer has star quarterback JJ McCarthy, one of the few quarterbacks in recent history who can carry the ball far. New quarterback Davis Warren is much more of a game manager, which underscores the need for the Wolverines’ running game. Returning Running BacksDonovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings will handle most of the Wolverines’ touches, although there is a chance that backup quarterback Alex Orji will come in for option plays.
Michigan will try to control the clock and keep the score minimal. They won’t win a shootout against Ewers and Sarkisian, but if the game comes down to three possessions, the Wolverines will try their best to have two of them. The Wolverines were fifth among Power Five teams in time of possession last year and second the year before that. Their core business is winning the line of scrimmage, and with question marks on the Texas defensive line, it’s possible Edwards and Mullings combined will be too much for the Texas front.
