Near-record temperatures are forecast for Thursday through the holiday weekend, with temperatures likely to reach 100 degrees, and highs of 95 to 97 degrees Fahrenheit are expected to persist through Labor Day.

Because of the scorching heat, the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation has issued air quality warnings for Chattanooga and most other areas of the region for Thursday, said Kerrie Simmons, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Morristown, Tenn. The regional forecast calls for temperatures in the triple digits, but temperatures in downtown Chattanooga could be a bit lower.

“It’s possible it will get that hot, but in Chattanooga itself it looks like 99 degrees,” Simmons said in a phone interview. “That looks like the hottest day of the week.”

(READ MORE: Weather service introduces new index for heat warnings)

Outside of the city center, however, residents west and northwest of the city – such as in Red Bank and Signal Mountain – could easily experience temperatures above 100 degrees, Simmons said.

“Chattanooga’s all-time high for August 29 is 100, so it’s going to be pretty close to hitting that,” Simmons said.

Looking ahead to the holiday, Simmons said the weekend forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday, and a 30 percent chance of the same mix for Labor Day.

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Then a cooling trend will begin as the heat subsides with highs of 90 to 92 degrees, Simmons said.

“We’re going to start trending downward,” she said. “By Labor Day we’ll be around 90, then we’ll drop to the low to mid 80s. I would really like to see that.”

Data from the U.S. Drought Monitor of the Tennessee Climate Office at East Tennessee State University in Johnson City shows that more than half of the state is experiencing unusually dry to moderate drought, based on climate data available through Aug. 22. All of Hamilton County and parts of Bledsoe, Marion, Meigs, Rhea, Sequatchie and the western edge of Bradley County are experiencing moderate drought.

(READ MORE: Chattanooga weather in 2023 will be among the warmest and driest on record)

Simmons said Polk County in the southeastern part of the state recently received enough rain to return much of the county to normal conditions. Elsewhere, the drought map shows an area of ​​severe drought conditions in Middle Tennessee in Hickman, Lawrence, Lewis, Maury and Perry counties.

In July, temperatures reached 100 or more on three days and fell below 90 degrees on six days, weather service records show. So far in August, temperatures have been 90 degrees or more on 23 days before Thursday.

Contact Ben Benton at [email protected] or 423-757-6569.