Through June 1, the Astros were below average, with a record of 26-33. Well, below average compared to a Pythagian winning percentage of .489. Only two pitching teams – the White Sox and Rockies – scored less than Houston’s. That’s a big problem in and of itself. But while the lineup was solid overall through May 31, with a wRC+ of 106, they also ranked 18th in runs scored with runners in scoring position. Given those two factors, the result wasn’t a huge surprise in terms of win-loss record. Disappointing, certainly. But when you look back at the games and see how things fell apart back then, the 26-33 record was certainly deserved.

Qualifying for the postseason, let alone winning the AL West, was uncertain at that point, even though it was only early June. The Mariners ultimately held a ten-game lead over the Astros until about mid-month. Needless to say, things weren’t looking good given a series of injuries to several pitchers and Kyle Tucker. But something happened: The Astros caught fire when the calendar turned to June. It also helps that they’re in the AL West, which was a disappointment overall in 2024.

There are reasons for Houston’s drastic turnaround, reflected in their 39-22 record since then. First and foremost, an improvement in run prevention. Hunter Brown went from a demotion candidate to one of the best starters in baseball. Spencer Arrighetti has also made progress. Framber Valdez has stayed healthy and opted not to stray again, at least for now. Yusei Kikuchi has given the rotation a nice boost, especially with Justin Verlander still on the IL. Ronel Blanco has lost some momentum in recent weeks, but you can’t complain too much about a 3.24 ERA and 4.39 FIP since early June in these times. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu still give you heartburn, but at least it’s not all at once now. Only two relievers on the team with at least ten innings pitched have an ERA above 4.00 since June 1: Seth Martinez and current Space Cowboy Rafael Montero.

As for the offensive numbers, on the surface, at least according to wRC+, not much has changed. Before June 1, the Astros had a wRC+ of 106. Since June 1? A wRC+ of 110. The key difference, however, is the rate of runs scored, 4.85 runs per game compared to 4.34 runs per game. More importantly, there was a marked improvement in runners in scoring position, going from a wRC+ of 102 to a wRC+ of 127. It helps that Alex Bregman has rebounded from his slow start. But to be clear, Tucker hasn’t played since June 3. That’s both unbelievable and sobering.

Going forward, the pitching staff will likely get reinforcements soon, especially with Verlander set to return shortly. But the lineup could use some help. Tucker’s activity during his rehab has started to pick up, though it will still be some time before he returns. Houston’s offense has seen some ups and downs since July 1, but overall offensive numbers have trended downward, reflected in a 103 wRC+ and 4.45 runs per game. That’s not too surprising, as Tucker’s impact on this lineup is notable. But his absence also underscores the current predicament of the Astros, who need to maintain this turnaround with an offense that needs a boost. A strong pitching staff has fortunately mitigated some of those issues, and it needs to stay that way.

With the Mariners now three games behind the Astros, Houston’s chances of making the postseason have risen to 84.4%. For the division, those chances are now 79%, a stark reversal from just two months ago. But there’s still a lot of baseball left, and a three-game lead in August is far from certain.