• Indices fell on Thursday as investors in Jackson Hole await comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

• Investors are eagerly awaiting indications of how drastic the cuts will be over the rest of the year.

• Traders also processed a slight increase in jobless claims from the previous week, which rose by 4,000 to 232,000.

Indices closed lower on Thursday as investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference on Friday.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed slightly lower, but the Nasdaq Composite posted a larger decline of 1.6%. Treasury yields jumped, with the 10-year yield rising eight basis points to 3.863%.

Investors are eagerly awaiting clues as to how drastic the cuts will be, with markets pricing in a 100 percent probability that the Fed will begin easing monetary policy at next month’s FOMC meeting.

Minutes of the Fed’s July meeting, released on Wednesday, said that “the vast majority” of Fed officials believe that easing monetary policy in September is “probably appropriate” if economic data continue to be “broadly in line with expectations.”

According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors believe a 25 basis point cut next month is almost certain, while a 50 basis point cut is unlikely.

In a note on Thursday, analysts at Goldman Sachs said there are still a number of ways in which Powell could surprise the markets. It is possible that the Fed chief could send either a more aggressive or a more dovish message.

“Potential surprises in the direction of more dovish monetary policy could be a more concerned assessment of the labor market or an indication that the high level of the federal funds rate is inappropriate given progress in inflation,” said David Mericle, an economist at Goldman.

Markets are also digesting new jobless claims data, which showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose slightly to 232,000. The increase follows two weeks of declining claims following the weak July employment report that sparked recession fears earlier this month.

The report also follows revised employment data on Wednesday that showed that 818,000 fewer jobs were created in the U.S. between April 2023 and March 2024 compared to initial reports.

Other data released Thursday showed existing home sales rose 1.3 percent in July compared with June. The data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors is below economists’ estimates of 1.5 percent, according to a Wall Street Journal poll.

The data showed that the median existing home price fell to $422,600 in July, from a record high of $426,900 in June.

Here are the US indices at the close of trading on Thursday at 4:00 p.m.:

The story continues

Here’s what else happened today:

For commodities, bonds and cryptocurrencies:

• West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $72.92 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 1.4% to $77.09 a barrel.

• The price of gold was $2,463.30.

• The yield on 10-year government bonds rose eight basis points to 3.863%.

• Bitcoin lost 2% to $60,413.

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