Well, the Mariners’ all-important road trip didn’t start out the way they would have liked. The M’s finished their season series against the Angels with a score of 5-8 and won just one of their last nine games against their hapless division rival. Five of those losses were blown by the bullpen in the eighth inning or later. If you were to name one obvious reason – among many – for Seattle to find itself in its current position, those five losses stand out pretty clearly.

Speaking of smaller division rivals, the Mariners currently lead the season series against the A’s 6-4. Not only is this four-game series the last time these two teams will meet this year, it’s also the last trip to Oakland before the A’s move to Sacramento next year and visit places unknown in the years after that. The Colosseum hasn’t always been the prettiest place to play, but no fan base should have its team ripped away from them as slowly as Oakland — and Seattle fans may have more reason to be sympathetic than most.

In case you haven’t noticed, the A’s have been one of the best teams in the American League since the All-Star break. They are 22-17 with a +10 run differential in the second half and have made great strides after losing over 100 games two years in a row.

Most of the progress has been made in their lineup. They’ve been pushing through a lot of young, mediocre players in hopes of breaking out a few of them this year, and they’ve discovered a few gems. Lawrence Butler has been the most encouraging breakout; he had a wRC+ of 56 through June, but has hit .314/.353/.692 over the past two months with plenty of power and a solid hitting discipline profile. He’s one of two big players, along with Brent Rooker, that can solidify this lineup. Jacob Wilson, son of former Mariner Jack Wilson, is a highly regarded prospect who has flown through the farm system this year thanks to a batting average of over .400 in 53 minor league games. He has incredible hitting ability, but he doesn’t have the power to really take advantage of such a profile.

Probable pitchers

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Katie Stratman – USA TODAY Sports

Osvaldo Bido was an unknown prospect for the Pirates who made his major league debut last year. His fairly good 4.10 FIP far exceeded his 5.86 ERA, but he was DFA’d over the winter. The A’s signed him as a minor league free agent, and he was a revelation for them in the second half of the season. After bouncing between Triple-A and the majors as a reliever, he was inserted into the rotation full-time after the All-Star break. Six of his seven starts have been fantastic, allowing three or fewer runs in each. His batted ball profile leans heavily toward fly balls, but he has allowed just two home runs this year. His 4.18 xFIP as a starter is more than a run higher than his ERA and FIP.

JT Ginn was part of the Chris Bassit trade in 2022, but spent more time on the injured list than on the mound during his time with the A’s. Finally healthy again, he’s been through two minor league levels and recently made his major league debut. He has a strong sinking fastball that produces a lot of groundball contact, but his secondary pitches have lacked development time, so they’re quite far behind his sinker. His slider is a bit more advanced than his changeup, but both need to be refined before Ginn can reach his full potential.

From an earlier series preview:

JP Sears improved nearly all of his peripherals last year except for the one weakness he’s always struggled with: his home run rate. He allowed 34 home runs in 2023 and that’s the main reason his FIP exceeded his ERA and xFIP by more than half a run. To curb those long-ball issues, he reshuffled his pitch mix this year to use his sweeper as his primary pitch while also using his sinker more often. His flat four-seam fastball will always generate an above-average number of whiffs thanks to its shape, but batters simply crush it when they come into contact with it. The adjustments seem to have paid off; his ERA and FIP are much lower than last year and he’s already accumulated 1.2 fWAR, doubling his career total.

In his only other appearance against the Mariners this year, Sears allowed two runs on three hits in six innings and had eight strikeouts.

Joey Estes made his season debut in early May against the Mariners, holding them to just a single run in five innings and then going scoreless for 6.1 innings in a start a month later. He’s had a pretty good start to his major league career; he has a great strikeout-to-walk ratio thanks to a fantastic walk rate. His fastball is his best pitch, with plenty of life in the zone and pretty good control over it. His secondary offerings are average or worse, though his two breaking balls have shown a little promise this year.

The big picture:

The Mariners are now closer to the final Wild Card spot than the top of the standings. FanGraphs gives them an 11.2% chance of making the playoffs, with the bulk of those chances coming via the Wild Card race. I guess we’re hoping for old-fashioned chaos in the AL Central now.