Despite Sunday’s agonizing loss, the Mariners still have a small chance of sneaking into the playoffs heading into the final week of the season. Technically, they’re not even out of the AL West yet, but that could change with a single loss to the Astros this week. With both the Royals and Twins in freefall, the Wild Card race remains the most likely path forward. I’ll go over the possible scenarios in the final section of this preview — tl;dr: The Mariners need to win at least five of their games this week, and six would be ideal.

To keep their slim playoff hopes alive, the M’s must beat the Astros. Seattle has already won a series in Houston this year and won a series there last year in mid-August. As of June 1, the ‘Stros are the best team in the American League, although their rise to the top of the AL West hasn’t exactly been smooth. It’s not the dominance we’re used to, but it’s clear they’re still the best team in the division.

The Astros’ lineup looks a little different than it did last time, when the Mariners faced them right after the All-Star break. Kyle Tucker, who missed three months of the season with a broken tibia, is back and quickly making up for lost time. The Astros also brought Jason Heyward off the scrap heap after he was released by the Dodgers in August. He has given Houston a capable left-hander for the bottom of their lineup, essentially replacing Chas McCormick on the roster. The big question mark for this series is the status of Yordan Alvarez. He injured his knee while sliding into second base on Sunday and will undergo imaging on Monday to determine the severity of the injury.

Probable pitchers

Updated Stuff+ explainer video

Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

From an earlier series preview:

Hunter Brown has had an extremely strange season so far. He was absolutely worn out to begin the season, sporting a 9.78 ERA in his first six starts. Starting with his start against the Mariners on May 5, he experimented with adding a sinker to his repertoire, and it’s worked pretty well; since adding that pitch to his arsenal, he’s posted a 2.75 ERA in 12 starts. His fastballs aren’t pinpoint accurate, which results in far too many heaters being left over the middle of the batting crease. He also doesn’t have as much confidence in his secondary offerings, meaning his pitch mix is ​​extremely fastball-heavy, even if the sinker has allowed him to diversify his offerings.

Brown held the Mariners scoreless for six innings in his last game against them in July. Overall, he has allowed three runs in 16.1 innings against Seattle this year.

From an earlier series preview:

A minor elbow injury cost Framber Valdez a few weeks in the first month of the season. Valdez wasn’t quite as good last year as he was in his big breakout season of 2022. A new cutter really helped him down the stretch, but that pitch has disappeared from his pitch mix this year. His two breaking balls are still fantastic and true plus-plus pitches, but his arsenal needs something between them and his 95-mph sinker.

Valdez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half of the season, with his ERA and FIP sitting at 1.74 and 2.50, respectively, since the All-Star break. The Mariners have done well to score 10 runs against him in three previous games.

From an earlier series preview:

Yusei Kikuchi finally had his best season in the US last year, posting a 3.86 ERA, a 4.12 FIP and accumulating 2.6 fWAR. The key to his breakthrough? He reduced his walk rate to just 6.9% while still striking out batters above average. He managed to put his slider in the zone more than half the time while maintaining the pitch’s whiff rate. He also reduced his home run rate by more than eight points thanks to a fastball that finally produced positive results that matched the pitch’s fantastic physical properties.

Kikuchi was the Astros’ big signing at the deadline, and many (myself included) scoffed at the amount of talent they gave up to get him. Houston definitely knew what they were doing, as Kikuchi has been great since switching teams; he’s posted a 3.00 ERA and 3.30 FIP with the Astros, and the team has won every single game he’s started in. His strikeout rate has skyrocketed thanks to a revamped plan of attack featuring his slider.

The big picture:

Since the Mariners don’t have a tiebreaker against any of the teams they’re chasing in the Wild Card race, they have three games to make up on the Tigers or Royals this week. And outscore the Twins by two games. Here are the various permutations of results needed elsewhere based on how many games the Mariners win this week:

If the Mariners play 6-0:

• The Tigers OR Royals must play 3-3 or worse AND
• The Twins must play 4-2 or worse

If the Mariners play 5-1:

• The Tigers OR Royals must finish 2-4 or worse AND
• The Twins must play 3-3 or worse

If the Mariners play 4-2:

• The Tigers OR Royals must finish 1-5 or worse AND
• The Twins must play 2-4 or worse

The Tigers still have the White Sox on their schedule at the end of the season, so they can already be assured of three wins. The Mariners, on the other hand, must really hope that Kansas City and Minnesota continue their free fall.

Interests while cheering/watching the scoreboard this week:

• Marlins beat Twins
• Nationals over Royals
• Rays over tigers
• Orioles vs. Yankees (to keep the AL East race exciting for the final weekend of the season when Baltimore plays Minnesota)

• Mets vs. Braves (to keep the NL Wild Card race exciting for the final weekend of the season when Atlanta plays Kansas City)