As the Brewers head home for their final series of the regular season, they know what their schedule will look like. They have three games against the Mets, then an NL Wild Card Series at home. This is a very relieving situation, especially considering the situation in the rest of the National League.

The situation for the Mets entering the series this weekend is complicated, to say the least. At this point, the entire wildcard picture is a mess. With Hurricane Helene heading toward land and Atlanta in the forecast direction, the rain is already causing devastating damage in the area. The last two games of the Braves-Mets series were rained out and will be rescheduled as a traditional doubleheader on Monday.

This creates a very difficult situation for the Mets. They are currently fifth in the National League by percentage points over the Diamondbacks (the Mets also hold the tiebreaker). The Braves are one game behind. The Mets may have to play all three games in Milwaukee, fly back to Atlanta for a doubleheader and then fly back to Milwaukee or San Diego for the wild-card series. There’s even a long-term scenario where the Mets host the Wild Card Series.

The Mets also have other teams to keep an eye on this weekend. The Braves and Royals meet this weekend in Atlanta, with both teams fighting for a wild card spot in their respective leagues. With Hurricane Helene expected to hit the area, another postponement is possible, which could put the Braves in an even tighter situation. Meanwhile, the Padres and Diamondbacks meet in Arizona. The Diamondbacks will be fighting for a spot, but the Padres will still have something to play for (either the NL West title or fourth place in a home series). Even the Phillies and Dodgers can’t rest yet as both fight for the top seed and home field advantage.

Of all these teams, the Brewers have the simplest situation: They will be the three seed and host someone. This series is about workload management and pitching preparation before the postseason. Pat Murphy will have to decide how much pressure he wants to put on the Mets, knowing they are a potential opponent next week. He also has to manage to keep the team in shape.

With that all sorted out, let’s talk about the Mets. It’s a different team than the one the Brewers faced earlier in the season. Her first two months were incredibly hard. They started the season 0-5, but went on a six-game winning streak in mid-April that brought them to 12-8. They then slumped again, reaching 24-35 on June 2, a low of 11 games under .500. From then on they fought back. Since then, they have posted a 63-35 record, going from 11 games under .500 to 17 games above. That includes a nine-game winning streak to start September and an overall record of 15-6 this month.

The Mets’ offense has been a key factor for them all season. They are one of six teams to surpass the 200 home run mark (203) and have a top-10 offense in runs scored (seventh, 751), on-base percentage (eighth, .321), slugging. percentage (ninth, .418). and wRC+ (seventh, 110).

Francisco Lindor has been the best player in this offense so far this season. He leads the team in hits (163), runs scored (103) and stolen bases (27). He is also second on the team in several other categories. He played in every game until September 16, when he was kept out of the squad due to lower back pain. He didn’t go on the IL and was ready to return Tuesday as a pinch-hitter, but didn’t get a plate appearance as the game ended with him in the on-deck circle. He was scheduled to start on Wednesday, but rains delayed his return for two more days. He will be fully operational when the series begins on Friday.

The Mets also have three other offensive players with a wRC+ above 125. Mark Vientos was the primary third baseman and was solid in the field all year. Jose Iglesias gave the team a boost in late May by starting the season on a minor league contract before being added to the roster and posting a .336 batting average and a 138 wRC+. Pete Alonso is still a strong threat. He led the team in home runs (38) and RBI (88).

One of the main reasons for the Mets’ resurgence was the change in their pitching staff. During the first half of the season, their team ERA ranked 22nd in the league (4.23) and their team FIP ranked 23rd (4.28). They turned things around in the second half, improving their team’s ERA to sixth (3.47) and FIP to seventh (3.73).

A key component of this turnaround lies in the bullpen, which features four relievers with an ERA below 2.50 (Dedniel Núñez, Phil Maton, José Buttó, Sean Reid-Foley). That doesn’t include their closer Edwin Díaz, who has 20 saves this season and a 2.59 ERA, 1.89 FIP and 15.53 K/9 in the second half. Reed Garrett was also a key part of the bullpen, leading the bullpen in innings pitched (56). ²⁄₃) and also a 1.84 ERA and a 1.94 FIP in the second half.

Meanwhile, the rotation is in flux as the Mets need to regroup after the rains. Two of their best starters, David Peterson and Sean Manaea, started the final two games of the Braves series as pitchers. However, this remains unclear after the rains. The only advantage of the rainouts for the Mets is that they essentially have all of their starters available for this series and Monday’s doubleheader and can line them up however they want. Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and Tylor Megill could all figure into the rotation for this series, although the team has not yet announced any starters.

Likely pitchers

Friday, September 28th at 7:10 p.m.: TBA vs. Frankie Montas

While a starter has not been named yet, Sean Manaea (3.29 ERA, 3.75 FIP) is expected to start for the Mets on Friday. As the strongest starter all season, it’s almost necessary for him to start Friday to ensure the Mets can field him in a potential Wild Card series (a Friday start would allow him to start the second game of regular rest). to begin). Manaea leads the team in strikeouts (183) this season and is second in innings pitched (178). His last start was on Saturday when he gave up three runs in seven innings to the Phillies. (Update: The Mets have officially named Manaea as the starter for Friday.)

With Frankie Montas set to make his pitch on Friday, he is one of the starters in the Wild Card Series, likely along with Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers. Montas could use a bounce-back game heading into the postseason. In his last start against the Diamondbacks, he didn’t last three innings as he allowed eight runs (seven of them earned).

Saturday, September 29th at 6:15 p.m.: TBA vs. TBA (FOX game)

Sunday, September 30th at 2:10 p.m.: TBA vs. TBA

These games are completely up in the air as the Brewers prepare for the NLWCS and the Mets are still deciding who they will field in which game. Still, it is likely that we will see Colin Rea and DL Hall as well as some other long-term players in these two games. Aaron Civale pitched today, so we probably won’t see him again in the regular season. Tobias Myers could even get an inning here, otherwise there would be more than a week between his start on Tuesday and the Wild Card Series. Also, don’t be surprised if we see a random pitcher get called up to take over some innings (e.g. Caleb Boushley last season).

forecast

This series is one of the hardest to predict this season simply because there is so much uncertainty involved. How hard will the Brewers play? It’s not a good idea to overdo it here, but we’ve seen too many teams rest too much early in the postseason and then emerge broke. The only factor we know will be there is the Mets’ drive to clinch a postseason berth. For this reason alone, I expect the Mets to win this series, while the Brewers will win one to avoid entering the postseason with a losing streak.