If there’s one thing the San Francisco Giants haven’t gotten credit for, it’s hiring someone whose foolproof formula guarantees at least 75 wins year after year. The team has matched or exceeded that 46% winning percentage for five straight seasons, and now it’s just one win away from making mission accomplished again.

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And before you think that’s JUST faint praise, consider that these Kansas City Royals, who are on the verge of securing a postseason berth for the first time since winning the 2015 World Series, have won 75 or more games in a season for the first time since 2017, when they went 80-82 and closed their contention window.

The Giants are one of only 9 teams to win at least 75 games in each of the last 6 seasons (or, if you include the 2020 season, 46% of the time). Of that group (Atlanta, Cleveland, Houston, the Dodgers, Milwaukee, the Yankees, Phillies, Giants, and Rays), the Giants have the fewest wins, which means they have been the best of the worst, but it’s still some kind of accomplishment. Executing a perfect plan to produce subpar results.

We once debated on this site which situation you would rather have: an Atlanta situation where you cheer for a Giants team that wins the division every year but never a World Series, or a situation where the Giants win the World Series from time to time but are bad or subpar in between. We never really addressed the Royals situation, where they are bad until they show signs of being good. 2024 is only the sixth winning season Kansas City fans have experienced in the 21st century. That’s a lot of futility.

The good news for those fans is that there is one holdover from the team’s last good period. Salvador Perez is now a 34-year-old catcher who is still putting up tremendous hitting numbers. When the Giants faced him in the 2014 World Series, he had hit 17 home runs that season (his age-24 season) and had a career line of .285/.315/.433 with 44 home runs in 403 games (1,595 PA). Over the next 9 seasons, he has amassed 229 more home runs and 1,134 hits, posting a slash line of .262/.300/.470, by a wide margin the most home runs at the catcher position since the start of 2015. Gary Sanchez is in 2nd place with 183. In his career, his slugging average is .460, tied with Buster Posey (and Ernie Lombardi), and ranks 25th in Major League history at the catcher position.

And they mix the old with the new in the form of Bobby Witt Jr., one of the most exciting players in baseball if you look past the headlines of Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge dominating the sport these days (for good reason, of course). He and Judge are virtually tied for most valuable players in the sport (Judge: 10.2 fWAR, Witt Jr.: 10.0) and voting for MVP will be an interesting discussion, to say the least. Judge’s 53 home runs to Witt Jr.’s 32 is a significant difference for many voters, but Witt Jr. does that while playing above-average defense as a shortstop.

In addition to the combination of old and young players, the Royals have exciting pitchers. Michael Wacha, a friend of the Giants whose memorable performance in 2014 led to the Giants’ trip to this World Series, has been a major factor in the rotation. Seth Lugo, who went from reliever to starter last year in San Diego under Bob Melvin’s leadership (not quite the same as Jordan Hicks this year, as Lugo started earlier in his career), is a leading AL Cy Young contender. Brady Singer has gone from promising prospect to disappointing prospect to solid mid-rotation starter in his 5th season (something to keep in mind when thinking about Kyle Harrison, perhaps?). Playing in the bullpen are Chris Stratton and Will Smith (though both are currently on the IL), but also Sam Long, who pitches well (3.20 ERA/3.76 FIP in 39.1 IP).

It’s a crazy mini-reunion of former Giants, and we haven’t even included Paul DeJong and Tommy Pham, one a (briefly) former Giant whose poor play in 2023 helped derail their postseason chances, and the other the guy who derailed Joc Pederson and the Giants’ playoff chances in 2022.

The Royals have lost four games in a row, 6 of 9 and 13 of 20. They have a tough mix of injury problems. Not only are both of their former Giant relief pitchers out, but their hard-hitting first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino appears to be out for at least the rest of the regular season, and they will be without their regular closer James McArthur. The Giants nearly swept the Orioles in Baltimore with this team at pretty much full strength; but with a similarly inspired game, they could get some revenge on Tommy Pham here, or rub more salt in the wound for winning the 2014 World Series at Kauffman Stadium.

Series details

WHO: San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals
Where: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
When: Friday (5:10 p.m. PT), Saturday (4:10 p.m. PT), Sunday (11:10 a.m. PT)
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast (Thursday)

Expected starters
Friday: Mason Black vs. Michael Wacha
Saturday: Landen Roupp vs. Brady Singer
Sunday: Blake Snell vs. Seth Lugo

Where they stand

Royals, 82-71 (2nd in ALC, ALWC #2), 718 RS / 620 RA | Last 10 games: 4-6
Giants, 74-79 (4th in NLW, -11.0 WC), 651 RS / 670 RA | Last 10 games: 4-6

Royals in the spotlight

Yuli Gurriel: In Pasquantino’s absence, the Royals have turned to the playoff veteran who has been unable to find major league work for most of this season after a dismal .663 OPS season in Miami in 2023. He has 8 postseason home runs in 356 postseason playoff appearances (all but 1 with the Astros). He spent most of this season with Atlanta’s Triple-A team (Gwinnett) with 12 home runs in 333 PA (.863 OPS). In 33 PA with the Royals here in September, he has 10 hits (2 doubles) and 5 walks with 6 strikeouts. He has 5 runs scored.

Royals pitching: Despite their injuries, their bullpen has been solid (2.86 FIP since Sept. 1). Daniel Lynch IV and Carlos Hernandez have combined to allow 0 runs in 18 IP. Lugo, Singer and Wacha represent starting pairings that could go either way for the Giants – they’re all contact pitchers who don’t walk many players. They could suddenly have big strikeout games, or the Giants could ambush and score runs because they’re seeing more pitches in the zone.

Bobby Witt Jr.: Okay, I’m not going to be too sweet in this section. The Giants will be facing one of the best players in the sport. He’s definitely one to keep an eye on. In his last 9 games (in which KC has gone 3-6), he’s hit 9-for-35 with two home runs and 10 RBIs. So it’s not his slowdown that’s got the Royals in trouble lately, and if the Giants somehow manage to shut him down — and that seems unlikely, given that they haven’t been able to keep players like Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani in check this season — it could inspire his teammates to step up.

Giants to watch

Marco Luciano: Will he play? Will he not play? Will it matter?

Matt Chapman: He has played 14 games at Kauffman Stadium and has a triple slash of .367/.426/.592 with 8 doubles and a home run in 54 batting appearances. He has never faced Seth Lugo, but he is 5-for-7 overall with 3 doubles against Singer and 1-for-6 with a double against Wacha.

Blake Snell: Last year’s NL Cy Young, who has pitched like a Cy Young candidate since July 2 (1.33 ERA in 74.1 IP), will face this year’s projected AL Cy Young in a park he hasn’t appeared in since 2019, when he allowed 7 runs in 3 IP.

Forecast time