The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense was very good on third downs in 2023. In Baker Mayfield’s first season as the team’s starting quarterback, the Buccaneers’ passing attack ranked ninth in completion rate (43.7%), seventh in total expected points added (EPA) (17.7), and 10th in passer rating (97.7). This allowed the offense to be successful in most games, although it performed much worse on first downs in those categories, but that’s a difficult form of success to sustain.

Mayfield and the Buccaneers will look to take the offense to a new level in 2024, and that is entirely possible if they do better on first downs. And the key to that The runs the ball better. Tampa Bay’s passing numbers on first downs were slightly lower than on third downs – counterintuitive – but their running numbers on first downs were last in the league in both success rate (24.2%) and yards per carry (3.2) and ranked 28th in overall EPA (-47.7).

New offensive coordinator Liam Coen has made it a top priority to get the Bucs’ running game back on track after two straight seasons of finishing 32nd in the league standings, and the results during the preseason have been encouraging. Coen has expanded the scope of Types of running plays the Bucs are willing to use and will also give Mayfield more strength in the huddle and at the line of scrimmage to get better opportunities. In addition, the Buccaneers believe they have significantly strengthened their offensive line on the interior, starting with the use of a first-round draft pick for center Graham Barton. Veteran freshman Ben Bredeson is the new starter at left guard and second-year player Cody Mauch, the right guard, has used the offseason to add needed size and strength.

Mayfield led just one drive during the preseason, a 70-yard touchdown march against Miami that included runs of four, five, three and four yards by Rachaad White. Since that three-yard run came on third-and-one, it meant White had a 100% success rate on that drive. Mayfield had a front-row seat for the rest of the preseason and has seen how the running game works in practice, and he believes it will will be significantly improved in 2024.

“I’m extremely confident — extremely confident in the guys doing this, but obviously the new plans, just the new stuff they’ve brought,” he said. “I think Coach (Kevin) Carberry has done a great job of explaining all the work to them in detail, and Brian Picucci in that room, too, hopes these guys get it done. And then Liam just brings that focus in. He demands excellence on the routes and everything the backs do. He’s extremely critical of their footwork and so forth, but that’s what it takes to be a great running team. So it’s been good to see that carry over not only to the first group when we’re out there, but the second and third groups really carry it over from the practice field to the field. So there’s a lot of confidence there for us and I expect that and I know the guys do that as well.”

Mayfield set career highs with 4,044 passing yards and 28 touchdown passes in his first season with the Bucs. Not only do the Bucs have all of their prominent pass catchers from last season back on the roster, but they also signed wide receivers Jalen McMillan and Kam Johnson during and immediately after the draft, and both have been very impressive in training camp. If they can contribute alongside Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton, and if the offensive line is truly significantly better inside, there is no reason to expect a drop in the Bucs’ passing results. However, there may be reason to believe that improvement whether the ground game is actually more efficient and effective.

“When the run game is working, most of the time that means guys are running free,” Mayfield said. “(It’s) freer on the play-actions because the safeties or somebody else is going to fall for the play-action fake if we’re more efficient on first downs. But with our guys, I expect us to be efficient no matter what, no matter what our run game looks like. We have three stars (at receivers) that we expect to go out there and start, and there’s no real drop-off in performance for the guys that come in. So I expect us to be extremely efficient as an entire offense.”