Today is the beginning of September, which means we are moving towards the peak of our tropical season.
This usually happens in the second week of September.
And after a relatively quiet season so far, the Atlantic basin is beginning to wake up.
The NHC released forecasts for three areas of interest on Sunday at 6 p.m.
An area is close to home in the Gulf off the coast of Texas and Los Angeles. This disturbance has a 10% chance of occurring over the next 2 days and 10% over the next 7 days. The NHC says, “This system is expected to meander near the coast over the next few days, and slow development is possible if it remains offshore. By Tuesday, the system is expected to move inland, and further development is not expected. Regardless, heavy rains could cause flash flooding in portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast.”
The second area of interest is near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea. This appears to be our best chance for further development at this time. There is a 10 percent chance of development in the next 2 days and a 40 percent chance in the next 7 days. The NHC says, “Slow development is possible as the disturbance moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday. Later next week, the disturbance is expected to move over the central and western Caribbean Sea, where conditions could become more favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form during this time.” This disturbance could develop into a tropical depression sometime next week.
The third wave is located just off the coast of Africa. It has a 0% chance of developing in the next 2 days and a 20% chance of developing in the next 7 days. According to the NHC, it is expected to move offshore on Monday, and after that, environmental conditions could favor slow development throughout the week as the system slowly moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
UPDATE, 8 PM: The NHC has increased the 7-day chance of development for this wave to 30%.
We will continue to monitor these areas and provide updates as they become available.
