The tropics are the talk of H-Town this weekend as we begin tracking a tropical wave that may get a little too close to us at some point.

According to the National Hurricane Center, there is a 60 percent chance that a tropical wave will form between Yucatan and Cuba in the next seven days.

This area is a problem for development due to the slow counterclockwise rotation known as the Central American Gyre. The gyre promotes the formation of thunderstorms and warm water temperatures, making it a problem zone for tropical development.

One factor that determines whether the storm moves east or west is the strength of a trough in the jet stream.

If the jet is weaker, it will push it westward – meaning more potential problems for the Texas coast or Mexico. If the jet is stronger, it will push it eastward – keeping the track closer to Florida. There are still many questions about exactly how the jet will develop and, if so, where it will head.

American models continue to keep the potential storm away from the Texas coast, instead routing it between New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama. The final location of this storm will change, so check back with us this weekend.

Hurricane season 2024

The next storm in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be named Helene.

• Tropical Storm Alberto

• Hurricane Beryl

• Tropical Storm Chris

• Hurricane Debby

• Hurricane Ernesto

• Hurricane Francine

• Tropical Storm Gordon

While this would be ideal for Houston, the European model shows a turn to the west, which could mean major tropical problems for us.

High pressure continues to prevail in Houston, which continues to prevent the formation of significant moisture.

The bottom line is that we will need a few more days to get a starting point for the weather models to adjust to, and then we can move on from there.

If this happens late this weekend, it will help clear up some of the “first guess” errors – and that’s what we have at the moment.

In the meantime, beware of the heat and keep an eye on the weather forecast. We’ll keep you updated as soon as we have new information!