There are only about two weeks left before the seniors find out about this the adjustment of the cost of living through social security for 2025. Newsweek spoke to experts about what to expect and why.

Social Security benefits change each year based on the COLA, which reflects the previous year’s inflation, so seniors retain their purchasing power.

While the COLA was 3.2 percent this year, experts warn that payments are unlikely to rise that much again next year.

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The Senior Citizens League most recently projected that the COLA in 2025 would be just 2.5 percent, down from the group’s previous estimate of 2.57 percent.

A 2.5 percent increase would mean seniors would receive an average of $48 more, and the monthly average would be $1,968.

Kevin Thompson, a financial expert and founder and CEO of 9i Capital Group, also said the COLA will likely be around 2.5 percent due to slowing inflation.

“The COLA is tied to changes in inflation. So when the inflation rate goes down, the COLA goes down,” Thompson said Newsweek. “This will be the lowest increase in COLA since 2021, when the increase was 1.3 percent.”

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Seniors may have gotten used to higher COLAs in recent years. While only 3.2 percent was achieved in 2024, the COLA in 2023 was set significantly higher at 8.7 percent. That was the largest increase since 1981, when the COLA was 14.3 percent.

Some predict the COLA could be even lower than 2.5 percent, which could come as a shock to seniors who rely on their benefits.

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Joseph Patrick Roop, president of Belmont Capital Advisors, said he expects the COLA to be somewhere between 2.1 and 2.5 percent, more in line with Social Security increases in the past.

“While other inflation rates are much higher at grocery stores and on college campuses, I would also like to remind seniors that Medicare premiums, which necessarily come from Social Security, are up 7.42 percent in Part B and 6 percent in Part D “Increased by .73 percent.” Roop said Newsweek. “This is a major driving factor why revised Social Security income often declines, even after a small COLA.”

Michael Ryan, financial expert and founder of michaelryanmoney.com, said he expects the COLA to be between 2.3 and 2.7 percent.

Although Ryan said the 2025 COLA will provide some financial relief, it likely won’t fully offset the cost increases seniors face in Medicare, rent and groceries.

“Medicare Part B premiums are expected to increase. This will impact the COLA adjustment. Seniors will have to devote a larger portion of their benefits to healthcare costs,” Ryan said Newsweek.

He added: “While food inflation has eased, prices remain high. The COLA will only partially cover the increased food expenses for many seniors.”

Because of this, many seniors may need to turn to part-time work or find a way to monetize their hobbies.

The Social Security Administration is expected to formally announce the COLA on October 10, once it has the latest inflation data.

Despite the fact that COLA protects seniors from inflation, many feel it is not a sufficient increase in their benefits and still struggle to make ends meet.

According to a survey by the Senior Citizens’ Association, around 80 percent of pensioners would like better inflation protection.

Some have suggested using the consumer price index for older people instead of the consumer price index for urban wage earners and office workers for this purpose. But that likely won’t change until the 2025 COLA is set in stone.

“While prices are still higher than they were a few years ago, the data suggests that inflation is generally cooling and therefore the increase is not as sharp as in the past,” says Alex Beene, a lecturer in financial literacy at the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek. “At the same time, additional income is needed that can help cover the costs of everyday items.”