A new nationwide poll shows that there is a statistical tie in the race for the U.S. Senate in Florida between incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott and Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

The new Emerson College-The Hill poll of likely voters in Florida shows Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell by one percentage point, 46% to 45%, with 9% of respondents saying they were undecided.

According to the poll, independent voters in Florida are choosing Mucarsel-Powell by 47 percent to 34 percent, while 19 percent are still undecided. This puts her six percentage points ahead of Scott among women, with 48 percent to 42 percent. Men prefer Scott by 51 percent to 42 percent.

The latest poll, out Friday, shows Mucarsel-Powell narrowing Scott’s sizable lead. Two previous polls in August and July showed him with a 4-point lead, while a May poll put him ahead by 8 points, according to RealClear Politics, which tracks polling data nationwide.

The Mucarsel-Powell campaign team hyped the latest poll, saying the results confirmed their own predictions of a close race on November 5.

“While public opinion polls show an increasingly tough campaign in Florida, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is gaining traction against Rick Scott, who is historically unpopular and will face a highly motivated Democratic electorate in November,” said a campaign memo released last week.

Her campaign reports nearly 200,000 donors, including 12,300 first-time donors.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Florida voters surveyed appeared to be “splitting votes,” noting that former President Donald Trump had a much larger lead over his opponent than Scott did.

“There are varying degrees of ballot splits in these national polls,” Kimball said. “In Florida, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is down by one point, even though (Kamala) Harris is down by five points.”

Trump is 5 points ahead of Harris in Florida

The poll found that Trump remains very popular with voters in Florida, with Harris leading 50 percent to 45 percent, and only 5 percent undecided.

In 2020, Trump won Florida’s 29 electoral votes, defeating Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden by three percentage points (51% to 48%) and winning statewide with 371,686 votes.

At a campaign event in Kissimmee on Friday, Scott said Mucarsel-Powell and other Democrats are “turning their backs on freedom and advancing the same socialist policies that have caused destruction and misery in Latin America.”

At the event, Scott announced the formation of the Dominicans for Rick Scott coalition, made up of Dominican leaders from across the state. He also said he has received support from Puerto Ricans, Cubans, Venezuelans, Ecuadorians, Colombians and Nicaraguans.

According to the poll conducted by Emerson University and The Hill, Mucarsel-Powell leads Scott by 6 percentage points among the state’s Hispanic voters, while Scott leads by a wide margin of 19 percentage points among white voters.

Florida voters strongly support abortion rights and marijuana legalization

The poll, conducted by Emerson University and The Hill, also found that 55% of Florida voters support a constitutional abortion right, also known as Amendment 4. For the measure to become law, 60% approval is needed.

Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana in Florida, receives overwhelming support, with 64% of respondents saying they would vote yes.

The poll was conducted among 815 likely voters in Florida. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points.

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