Yankee Stadium fans ready to brave today’s miserable weather will see two favorites in the stadium Rookie of the Year odds when Pittsburgh Pirates rookie right-hander Paul Skenes faces New York Yankees rookie right-hander Luis Gil.

The rookie hurlers have been stingy with the runs, and that’s why my predictions for Pirates vs. Yankees this afternoon are for a low-scoring affair. Read on for me MLB Tips for Saturday, September 28th.

Pirates vs Yankees prediction

My best choice
Under 7.5 (-120 at BetMGM)

My analysis
Today’s matchup between the ROY front runner should be fun.

Pittsburgh Pirates Rookie right Paul Skenes was phenomenal, allowing just two earned runs in his final 22 frames. He has 22 strikeouts with six walks in that span, which is consistent with what he has accomplished all season.

Skenes can sometimes bend, but it rarely breaks. The guy managed a 1.99 ERA over 131 innings, with 167 punchouts and a streak of broken bats. He has to be sharp today because that New York Yankees have punished right-handed pitching this season.

The Bombers have the best offense in baseball against right-handers. What you see is what you get, and the Yankees are a low-strikeout, high-walk club that has a low BABIP of .278 but an above-average ISO of .182. Skenes will make things difficult for the Bombers, but so will the New Yorks Luis Gil.

Gil may not be as flashy as Skenes, but the rookie was strong for the Yankees, allowing nine earned runs on 16 free passes and 25 whiffs in his final 24 1/3 frames. Gil is hitting 10 per nine and will take a break today as the Pirates are not scoring any runs.

The four runs Pittsburgh scored on Friday were the most Pittsburgh has scored in its last eight games. The Pirates strike out too often (25%), have a low walk rate, while also allowing the fourth-fewest runs against right-handers.

I expect this head-to-head fight to be great. The weather will be miserable and this bullpen in New York is one of the best in the business. The Yankees could also rest some players today, which could limit their offense – they’ll face a Pirates bullpen that has a BABIP of .248 over the final two weeks. That’s why I’m playing against the Under today.

Selection by Aaron Judge: Judgment Day

My best choice
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 total bases (-175 at BetMGM)

My analysis
Aaron Richter leads baseball in home runs (58) and has hit a bomb in each of his last five. He got a much-needed day off last night and should be ready to get back out there considering how hot his bat is. The hard-hitting Bronx Bomber has had multiple hits in three of his last five and is batting .329 against righties and .335 at Yankee Stadium.

The righty boasts a .299 BABIP and six of Skene’s 10 bombs allowed came against that side. The judge will also note that the Pirates’ bullpen has given up 224 hits and 23 jacks in its last 1,018 batters. Judge’s prop with 0.5 total bases is a check swing and we play the over.

Pirates vs. Yankees – Match Game Parlay (SGP)

Below 7.5

Aaron Judge 1+ total bases

Yankees money line

The Yankees are 43-36 at home and 9-5 when Gil plays at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have lost three of their last four home games, but the Pirates are not a good baseball team.

Pittsburgh has lost five of its last eight road games because it averages fewer than four runs per game on the road. The Pirates may have Skenes, but they also have a terrible bullpen that has blown 11 of its 28 save opportunities since the All-Star break. I like the Yankees in a low scoring game.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pirates vs Yankees odds

Pirates vs Yankees live odds

Pirates vs. Yankees opening odds

• Money line: Pittsburgh +115 | New York -150
• running line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-200) | New York -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Below 7.5

Pirates vs. Yankees Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• The Pirates are 4-6 and 14-9 in their last 10 games when Skenes takes the lead.
• The Yankees are 6-4 and 19-9 in their last 10 games when Gil gets the nod.
• The over/under totals haven’t changed since the 7.5-run opener. The over is priced cheaper than even money, but the bad weather expected today is probably why you’ll have to pay as much as -125 for the under.

Pirates vs. Yankees trend.

The Pirates have been underperformed in 41 of their last 72 road games with +9.50 units and an ROI of 12%. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Yankees.

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