First Baseman of the Cardinals Paul Goldschmidt is having the least productive season of his illustrious major league career, but the soon-to-be 37-year-old made it clear to MLB.com’s John Denton that he is determined to continue his career in 2025. The seven-time All-Star was named National League MVP in 2022, but in 2024 he has seen a significant drop-off in performance in virtually every offensive category – to the point where he was a below-average hitter for the first time in his career (99 wRC+, 96 OPS+).
This season, Goldschmidt has a batting line of just .244/.302/.410. He’s still hit 20 home runs, but his 27.2% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate are the worst of his career. To his credit, Goldschmidt has gotten back on track recently; in his last 150 at-bats, he’s posted a much-improved batting average of .295/.342/.532 (141 wRC+). He’s still nowhere near his career rate of 12.7% (6.3% during that streak), but he’s lowered his strikeout rate (23.3%) to be closer to his career level.
Goldschmidt made no excuses for his struggles this year, noting that despite solid batted-ball and run stats via Statcast, “there’s no denying I haven’t played well.” The five-time Silver Slugger winner acknowledged that his struggles have created “some bad habits” with his swing that are hard to break. Fans of both the Cardinals and Goldschmidt should watch the interview in full, as Goldschmidt opens up about a down season at bat. Denton also spoke with manager Oli Marmol, who said he “loves” Goldschmidt when asked about a potential reunion for the upcoming 2025 season.
Obviously, at the end of the day, that won’t be Marmol’s decision. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak originally acquired Goldschmidt from the D-backs (in exchange for Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andreas Jung and a competitive balance draft pick for 2019 that the D-backs used to select Dominic Fletcherwhich they sold to acquire Righty Christian Mena last offseason). The Cardinals quickly extended Goldschmidt’s contract for five years and $130 million, and he is playing the final season of what has proven to be a good deal for the club at the moment.
The Cardinals reportedly have some interest in bringing Goldschmidt back, but there are also internal options to consider. The 25-year-old Alec Burleson began the season with two months of roughly average offense at bat before catching fire over the summer. He’s now hitting .280/.320/.453 overall on the season. Burleson has served primarily as a corner outfielder and designated hitter in 2024, but he’s not a strong defender in the outfield. A move to first base could be beneficial, especially if the Cardinals anticipate another shaky defender. Jordan Walkeras the team’s right fielder in future seasons.
There are also 27-year-old Luke Baker to consider. Although he’s older than the typical “candidate,” Baker hit 33 home runs in just 84 Triple-A games in 2023 and has hit another 32 big flies in 108 Triple-A games this season. He has yet to hit a single home run in his 126 major league appearances (.202/.325/.356, 30.2% strikeout rate), but Baker’s Triple-A record in terms of power is intriguing. At the very least, his right-handed bat could form a platoon with the left-handed Burleson, with both players also playing some time as designated hitter. Baker has decimated left-handed hitters this season, posting a 1.142 OPS and hitting a home run in 15 of his 150 appearances against them.
Reuniting with Goldschmidt would limit Burleson and Baker’s playing time. It would be understandable if the Cards’ front office wanted to use all the resources that would be allocated to a Goldschmidt deal on pitching support. However, if the Cards believe Goldschmidt’s late resurgence is a sign of a rebound in 2025, then re-signing him on a short-term contract is obviously appealing.
From a payroll perspective, there is a compelling argument to put resources elsewhere. The Cardinals’ payroll has been a few million dollars shy of $180 million each of the last two seasons ($183 million in 2024), and they already have about $111 million on the books for next year, according to RosterResource. That doesn’t even include decisions on the corresponding $12 million options. Kyle Gibson And Lance Lynnnor does it include arbitration increases for Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, John King, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, André Pallante And Nolan Gorman.
Even at a presumably reduced rate from his current $26 million annual salary, Goldschmidt would still likely put the Cardinals at over $150 million (assuming arbitrage raises for the entire class and just one of those two rotation options) before tackling other potential offensive upgrades or new additions to starting pitching. That money could arguably be better spent focusing elsewhere, handing first base over to a combination of Burleson and Baker — or perhaps just a lower-cost free agent option (e.g. Carlos Santana).
Goldschmidt’s future is one of several key decisions for the Cardinals as they look to put disappointing 2023-24 seasons behind them. Last year, the club finished 71-91, finishing last in the NL Central. They will finish better at 69-69 in 2024, but they are 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot with just 24 games left to play, making a postseason appearance this season extremely unlikely. This would be their first consecutive missed postseason since a three-year absence from the playoffs in 2016-18, and only the third time since the turn of the century that St. Louis has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.
