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North American Class 8 truck orders declined year-over-year for the second consecutive month in July, according to ACT Research.

Preliminary ACT data showed orders fell 13% to 13,400 units. There was also an 8% month-on-month decline. The only other year-on-year declines so far this year have been in the previous month and in March. However, when seasonal factors are taken into account, the numbers are more favorable.

“Class 8 orders remained at the trend-setting and seasonally expected levels in July,” said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT. “Historically, July is the worst month of the year for Class 8 orders, so it is assigned the largest seasonal factor, nearly 24% this year. Applying this seasonal factor increases the seasonally adjusted July intake to 17,500 units, resulting in a smaller 3.7% (month-over-month) decline.”

Vieth added that the headwinds hitting the U.S. portion of the North American commercial vehicle industry have not abated in the first half of the year, and he even expects them to become somewhat stronger as the second half begins.

“The preliminary results of the public TL carriers’ performance in the second quarter are encouraging only in that the nominal results were higher than in the first quarter,” said Vieth. “Added to this are rising and record-high inventories in both the medium- and heavy-duty markets.”

Vieth noted that he has repeatedly been surprised by the positive orders situation given these factors. He believes this latest data is similar to the previous month in that orders were more in line with data-driven expectations.

“Although we are seeing a slowdown in tractor orders due to the weak freight market, customer demand for trucks remains solid,” said Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. “At Mack Trucks, we are focused on supporting our customers through market fluctuations with a full line of vehicles to meet their needs.”

FTR Transportation Intelligence released a report saying preliminary Class 8 net orders in July were 12,400 units, down 6% month-over-month and 7% year-over-year. The report noted that orders are slightly below seasonal expectations and the market is now slightly below replacement demand levels on an annual basis.

“OEMs experienced a somewhat mixed market this month, with commercial vehicle markets slightly lagging conventional, but the overall picture was stable,” said Dan Moyer, senior commercial vehicle analyst at FTR. “Despite stagnant freight markets, fleets continue to invest in new equipment, albeit at a slower pace.”

FTR also noted in the report that the decline was not surprising given the strong order backlog in the first five months of the year and the typically weak seasonal order backlog. The data showed that orders fell to just under 15,000 units in the last three months after averaging nearly 16,000 units from April to June.

“Year-to-date orders are only slightly below historical averages and seasonal expectations, and market fundamentals remain relatively stable based on these preliminary orders,” Moyer said. “We expect further declines in backlogs once final Class 8 market indicators are released later this month, as well as continued growth in what is already a record-high inventory. Pressure continues to mount on OEMs to reduce build rates.”