There’s a lot of fuss about age these days. But not for me. (GUNSHOT) See the guy in the red shirt? That’s Allan Lichtman, 77-year-old Allan Lichtman. And he’s competing in the senior Olympic qualifiers. But there’s another kind of race that Allan is just as qualified for. “Allan Lichtman.” “Allan Lichtman.” “Professor Allan Lichtman.” “He’s correctly predicted—” “—almost every presidential election since 1984.” And today, Allan Lichtman is ready to tell us who will win in 2024. (MUSIC) Look, you might think Allan is just an athlete. “Well, I was an obstacle course champion in the 1970s.” “His name is Dr. Allan Lichtman.” But actually, he’s quite a nerd. History professor and quiz show champion. Today he’s on a different kind of winning streak. To make his presidential predictions, Allan’s model ignores the polls and the experts. “It’s based on 13 keys that I developed in 1981 with my friend, geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. It’s based on the results of presidential elections over the past 120 years.” I told you. He’s a nerd. Allan’s model was one of the few that predicted it for Trump in 2016. “Donald Trump will win.” And in 2020, Allan was right again. “Trump will lose the White House. The race was close, but the keys were right.” So let’s look at how those keys actually work. “They’re 13 big-picture questions that address right or wrong and ask about the party’s strength and performance in the White House. And only two keys have anything to do with the candidates.” But Allan, 2024 is an unprecedented election year. Can your 13 keys really predict it correctly? “The keys will absolutely work. They are the constant north star of political prediction.” Good. Time to go through those keys and find out who Allan says will be the next president of the United States. “But first, I want to change into something more comfortable.” (SHOT) No. 1: The White House party gained seats in the House between the midterm elections. “Democrats did better than expected in 2022, but still lost seats in the House. So the key is wrong.” Remember, a wrong key is good for Trump. No. 2: The incumbent key. The incumbent president is running for re-election. “Biden withdrew from the race, costing Democrats that key. It’s wrong.” Wait, you’re saying it would have helped Democrats if Biden had stayed in office? “If Biden had stayed in office, they would have saved that one key. That’s all.” Hmm, OK. Let’s move on for now. No. 3: The White House party avoided a primary contest. “The Democrats finally got smart and rallied overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris. So the key is right.” A real key. That gets Harris off the starting blocks. No. 4: There is no third-party challenger. “RFK Jr. has dropped out of the race and no other third-party candidate is even close to the 10 percent hurdle in the polls needed to win this key. That’s right.” Four keys in and it’s neck and neck. Let’s go. No. 5: The short-term economy is strong. “Look, despite all the talk about a so-called vibecession, the economy is not in recession. So that key is right.” No. 6: Long-term economic growth during this presidential term has been at least as good as the last two terms. “Growth during Biden’s term is way ahead of growth during the previous two terms. So that key is clearly right.” No. 7: The White House has made big changes to national policy. “Re-entering the Paris Climate Agreement, the CHIPS Act, the infrastructure bill, the Anti-Inflation and Climate Change Act. The key is clearly true.” No. 8, there was no sustained social unrest during the administration. “There were sporadic protests, but nothing that even came close to the massive, sustained social unrest that would be needed to flip that key. So it’s true.” But schools are just starting to resume classes. Couldn’t that key be flipped with new protests? “Yes, there are a lot of protesters upset about Biden’s policies in the Middle East, but now that Harris and not Biden is the center of attention, that has dampened the social unrest.” No. 9, the White House is scandal-free. “Oh, my favorite key, the scandal key. And Republicans have been trying to pin scandal on President Biden for years and getting nowhere. So the key is true.” But come on, Allan. Biden’s terrible debate performance, questions about his age, Hunter Biden, doesn’t all that count? “No. There has to be at least some bipartisan admission of actual corruption that implicates the president himself and not a family member. So the key remains true.” So two false and seven true so far. Looking pretty good for the Democrats. We’re left with four keys, all of which would have to be false for Trump to have a chance. No. 10, the incumbent party nominee is charismatic. “This is a very high hurdle key. You have to be a once-in-a-generation candidate who is universally inspirational. Harris has not met that standard. So this key is false.” No. 11, the challenger is not charismatic. “Some people think Donald Trump is a god, but he only appeals to a narrow base. So this key is true.” But wait, that means “The Democrats will keep the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.” But wait, Allan. We’re left with two keys. The keys to foreign policy? “You’re right. Foreign policy is tricky and those keys could tip over. The Biden administration is deeply involved in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys were wrong, that would mean there would only be five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to retake the White House.” So I guess that means you’re sticking with your prediction. “Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States. At least that’s my prediction for this campaign. But the outcome is up to you. So go vote.” Well, I guess that settles this campaign. But what about the one we started with? “Well, I won some medals. I didn’t get injured. And I qualified for the 2025 National Senior Olympics. Not bad for a 77-year-old, right?” (MUSIC)