• The market value of Nvidia shares could increase by $298 billion after the release of second-quarter results.
• Goldman Sachs points out that option pricing data suggests a potential 9% move in Nvidia stock in either direction.
• “The bar is much lower for Nvidia this earnings season than it has been in recent quarters,” Goldman said.

Nvidia’s stock price could see a massive $298 billion surge following the release of its second-quarter results on Wednesday.

This estimate is based on current option pricing data, according to a statement from Goldman Sachs’ trading department on Monday.

A possible fluctuation in market value in one direction or the other would correspond to a change in the share price of the $3.17 trillion chipmaker of more than 9 percent.

Nvidia holds the record for the largest single-day market value swing at $330 billion, which occurred in late July as the stock recovered from a painful, weeks-long decline.

According to the bank, the company could surprise the stock market and trigger a major rally if it can show a solid growth quarter with an even stronger future forecast.

“Can you imagine NVDA beating expectations on Wednesday?” asked Goldman Sachs’ trading desk led by managing director Scott Rubner.

“Infotech was net sold for the fourth week in a row (13 of the last 16) and recorded the largest net sell-off in two months as the sector was net sold in every region, driven by both long and short selling. The Prime Book is now underweight in the Infotech space by -9.7% versus the MSCI World Index – the lowest level since we began recording,” Rubner explained.

In other words, equity market positioning suggests that most investors could be surprised if Nvidia rises after Wednesday’s earnings release.

“Given the fundamental sell-offs in the technology sector, the bar for Nvidia is significantly lower this earnings season than in recent quarters,” Rubner said.

Nvidia is currently the second largest company in S&P500, weighing around 6.5%, so the results could have a big impact on the broader market.

In fact, Steve Sosnick, strategist at Interactive Brokers, emphasized how important Nvidia is to the rest of the market.

In a note Tuesday, Sosnick analyzed the 25 most active trades on Interactive Brokers’ platform and more than 70% of them have a connection to Nvidia.

Nvidia takes the top spot, followed by Tesla, one of the chipmaker’s most important customers. AMD, Nvidia’s biggest competitor, is in third place, and in fourth place is a semiconductor ETF.

In total, Nvidia is linked to 18 names of the 25 most active trades at Interactive Brokers, according to Sosnick.

“We have become accustomed to NVDA being at the top of the rankings most weeks, which underscores its key role in investor psychology. In addition, it is quite clear that the company plays a critical role in influencing a variety of other popular investment vehicles,” Sosnick said.