Northwestern State vs. South Alabama: Prediction, Picks and Odds – College Football, Week 3
Northwestern State is an underdog at 35.5 points behind, but the Demons can still score points. South Alabama should pull away, but that lead is too high, so we’re going for the point total since we have two bad defenses on the field.
The South Alabama Jaguars welcome a struggling Northwestern State Demons team to Mobile in Week 3.
The Jaguars are 35.5 points ahead as favorites in their home game against the 0-2 Demons, and in our Northwestern State vs. South Alabama predictions, we show why these two winless teams are in for a high-scoring encounter.
Read on to find out my complete college football picks for Thursday, September 12th.
Prediction for Northwestern State vs. South Alabama
My best bet
Over 60.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
A lot has changed in Mobile in the last few months. South Alabama was once one of the up-and-coming programs in the Group of Five and has been somewhat disoriented since the departure of head coach Kane Wommack, who now serves as Alabama’s defensive coordinator.
Wommack’s departure also coincided with a change in approach under Major Applewhite, who served as South Alabama’s offensive coordinator from 2021-2023 before taking over as head coach.
Two games into his tenure, South Alabama’s defense has taken a major step back, ranking 122nd in SP+ and allowing an average of 39.5 points per game — including 27 against an Ohio offense that ranks 129th out of 134 in SP+.
While Northwestern State isn’t a powerhouse, it has already shown this season that it’s capable of scoring against FBS teams and taking advantage of poor defense, as evidenced by the Demons’ 28 points in their Week 1 loss to Tulsa.
New head coach Blaine McCorkle has an offensive background, which showed against the Golden Hurricanes – especially in the running game. This was also evident in Week 2 against Prairie View A&M, where the Demons scored 31 points.
The problem is that Northwestern State’s defense was atrocious. Tulsa scored 62 points and QB Kirk Francis threw four touchdowns. Week 2 wasn’t much better, with the Panthers scoring 37 points.
South Alabama QB Gio Lopez should have a big day against this defense. In Week 1, he was one of the best G5 QBs in the country with 432 yards in the air and 62 yards on the ground while scoring four total touchdowns.
Although he missed the Jaguars’ Week 2 game, he’s expected back against the Demons, and he and receiver Jamaal Pritchett should lift this defense and help this over cash.
Northwestern State vs. South Alabama – Same Game Accumulator (SGP)
Over 60.5
Northwestern State +35.5
An 0-2 Group of Five team winning by more than five touchdowns is a tough task. Even after being trounced by Tulsa, Northwestern State still lost by 34 points.
Given the Jaguars’ defensive weakness and the Demons’ penchant for big plays, it’s hard to imagine South Alabama scoring more than 60 points to close that gap. I just don’t trust their defense to shut down Northwestern State for four quarters.
And even if South Alabama gets a big lead, the Demons will likely be able to score points in overtime – just like they did against the Golden Hurricanes.
It is far more likely that this game for Northwestern State will end with a similar result to the game against Tulsa than it will end in a total loss.
Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Odds for Northwestern State vs. South Alabama
Northwestern State vs South Alabama live odds
Opening odds for Northwestern State vs. South Alabama
- Spread: Northwestern State +36.5 (-110) | South Alabama -36.5 (-110)
- Money line: Northwestern State +1,100 | South Alabama -50,000
- Over/Under: Over 60.5 (-110) | Under 60.5 (-110)
Northwestern State vs. South Alabama Spread and Over/Under Analysis
- South Alabama started as a 36.5 point favorite, with most books between -35.5 and -36.5 shortly before kickoff.
- The Jaguars are 0-2 ATS this season and have failed to impress as favorites in both games.
- The over/under opened between 58.5 and 60.5 and remains there.
- South Alabama is 1-1 on the over this season after going 7-6 last year.
Things to know about the betting trend Northwestern State vs. South Alabama
South Alabama has underperformed the point total in just six of its last 13 games (-1.70 units / -12% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Northwestern State vs. South Alabama here.
Game info Northwestern State vs. South Alabama
| Location: | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-12, 2024 |
| Start: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Northwestern State vs. South Alabama: Latest Injuries
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