Development of a tropical storm possible in the first week of September
The first tropical storm in the Atlantic since mid-August could form before the end of the first week of September.
The National Hurricane Center was tracking two tropical waves in the Atlantic on Saturday, including one in the Gulf of Mexico, that could bring storms to the United States in the coming days.
The system in the Gulf could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Texas and Louisiana early next week. “It’s still going to be simmering through this weekend,” Bob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, told USA TODAY.
The steering current will get it moving and early next week the system could reach southern Texas by Monday before moving along the Gulf to Louisiana and possibly entering the Mississippi Valley, he said. “Then you have to react to a moving system coming your way,” Smerbeck said.
While these systems were being monitored, flood warnings remained in effect for Florida’s Big Bend and Panhandle coastal regions through Saturday night.
However, none of these systems are expected to end the surprising lull in Atlantic hurricane activity of the past few weeks. No named storms have formed since Aug. 12 — a stretch not seen in 56 years, Phil Klotzbach, senior hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, recently told USA TODAY.
Experts had predicted an extremely active hurricane season with up to 25 named storms. But so far only five have formed, three of which have developed into hurricanes.
Where are hurricanes predicted?: Experts fear that there will be more storms in the Atlantic.
National Hurricane Center tracks two tropical waves in the Atlantic
The first system tracked by the NHC is a tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche and west of the Yucatán Peninsula, which protrudes and separates the Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean Sea.
The system is currently causing random showers and thunderstorms over Guatemala, southeastern Mexico and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, the center said.
The developing low pressure could help the storm strengthen into a tropical depression early or middle of next week as it slowly moves north-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. As wind shear subsides, very warm waters could help it strengthen into a system and move northward toward the U.S., AccuWeather’s Smerbeck said.
Meteorologists estimate that there is a 60 percent probability that this development will occur in the next seven days.
A second system, currently located in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, is bringing showers and thunderstorms. With the possibility of a low-pressure system forming in the next few days, meteorologists are giving a 30% chance that the system will develop west-northwest on its path.
Tropical systems tracked by the National Hurricane Center on Friday were no longer visible on NHC tracking maps by Saturday morning.
What is a tropical wave?
According to AccuWeather.com, the term “tropical wave” does not refer to waves or bends in the ocean, but is atmospheric in nature.
Tropical waves are elongated areas or troughs of relatively low pressure that move east to west through the tropics and west from Africa into the Atlantic.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a wave can lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone, which in turn can develop into a tropical storm or hurricane.
Storm tracker for the Atlantic
What can we expect as the peak of hurricane season approaches?
While the 2024 hurricane season won’t be a record-breaking one, experts still expect more activity. The season typically peaks around September 10, and there are still nearly three months until the season’s peak on December 1.
“From our current perspective, everything is still going according to plan,” Dan Harnos, a meteorologist on the Climate Prediction Center team that produces the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal outlook, told USA TODAY on Thursday.
Conditions are still favorable, with very warm and record-high sea temperatures across much of the Atlantic, Harnos said. “With all the warm water out there, there’s a lot of room for a turnaround. Things could change quickly.”
Contributors: John Gallas, Cheryl McCloud, Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice, USA TODAY Network.
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