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NHC tracks 3 disturbances, 3 tropical waves
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NHC tracks 3 disturbances, 3 tropical waves


The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, 2024. The peak of the hurricane season is September 10, with peak activity occurring between August and October.

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Although there are three tropical systems, everything is quiet in the tropics – for now.

As Labor Day weekend continues, weather experts advise getting prepared. As of 8 a.m. Sunday, September 1 (Labor Day is Monday, September 2), the National Hurricane Center in Miami was tracking three tropical systems and three tropical waves in the North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

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Here’s what’s brewing in the tropics starting Sunday, September 1st:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:

An extensive low pressure system near the Texas coast continues to produce showers and thunderstorms along and just off the coast of Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to linger near the coast for the next few days, and slow development is possible if it stays offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause flash flooding in parts of coastal Louisiana and the Texas coast over the next few days.

  • The probability of occurrence within 48 hours is low at 10 percent.
  • The probability of occurrence within 7 days is low at 20 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean Sea:

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed little since yesterday. Slow development is possible as the disturbance moves westward and reaches the Lesser Antilles on Monday (Labor Day 2024). The wave is expected to move across the central and western Caribbean later this week, where conditions are expected to become more favorable for some development, and a tropical depression could form during this time. Regardless of development, this system could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over parts of the Lesser Antilles on Monday.

  • The probability of occurrence within 48 hours is low at 10 percent.
  • The probability of occurrence within 7 days is on average 40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave over West Africa is expected to move offshore on Monday (Labor Day 2024). Thereafter, environmental conditions may support slow development throughout the week as the system slowly moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • The probability of occurrence within 48 hours is low and is almost 0 percent.
  • The probability of occurrence within 7 days is low at 20 percent.

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The National Hurricane Center is also tracking three tropical waves in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center in Miami has issued a tropical weather forecast for three tropical waves. Here is the warning as of Sunday, September 1, 8 a.m. EST:

  • A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic moved westward. Isolated moderate convection was observed.
  • A tropical wave in the central Atlantic moved westward. Isolated moderate convection was observed.
  • A tropical wave moved across the western Caribbean and crossed the Pacific to the west. The tropical wave extends across southeastern Mexico through El Salvador and into the eastern Pacific. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed along the Pacific coast of Central America.

Gulf of Mexico:

Some surface troughs in the northwestern and southeastern Gulf waters will produce isolated to scattered rain showers over a large portion of the basin. The basin will be under the influence of a weak pressure gradient, resulting in moderate to lighter winds and 2- to 4-foot waves.

A broad low pressure system near the Texas coast is forecast to remain close to the coast for most of this week, and slow development is possible as it meanders offshore. Strong gusty winds and locally higher seas are expected near the convection. Elsewhere, light to locally moderate winds and light seas are expected through the middle of next week as the Atlantic high pressure system expands inland across the southeastern United States.

Caribbean Sea:

The northwestern Caribbean will see scattered rain showers due to a surface trough north of the area and abundant tropical moisture. The pressure gradient between a ridge south of Nova Scotia and the Colombian low pressure system will produce moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 feet in the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. The rest of the Caribbean will experience moderate or lighter winds and light to moderate seas.

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are forecast to blow nightly off the southern coast of Hispaniola through the middle of this week. A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to show signs of organization. Slow development is possible as the disturbance moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday (Labor Day 2024). Later this week, the wave is expected to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where conditions are likely to become more favorable for some development, and during this time a tropical depression could form.

Atlantic Ocean:

A surface trough extends from central Florida into the southeastern Gulf waters and interacts with an upper-level disturbance, producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. Water depths in these waters are 4 to 6 feet.

A low- to mid-level low pressure system is forecast to continue to support isolated moderate to locally strong convection off the coast of Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the next few days. Fresh to locally strong east to northeast winds will blow nightly off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of next week. A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to show some signs of organization. Slow development is possible as the disturbance moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday (Labor Day 2024). Later this week, the wave is forecast to move across the central and western Caribbean, where conditions will likely become more favorable for some development and a tropical depression may form.

When is hurricane season in Florida?

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30 each year, with the most active period being between August and October.

Earlier this month, Hurricane Debby caused flooding in parts of southwest Florida after making landfall in the Sunshine State for the second time. Hurricane Ernesto did not cause major damage in Florida.

The next named storm would be Francine.

Weather radar: Will it rain in Gainesville, Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Daytona Beach, Florida?

Shown is the National Weather Service radar for the Jacksonville area, showing real-time weather conditions across parts of northern Florida. The current date and time is shown in the lower right of this embedded radar. Otherwise, you may need to clear your cache.

Weather radar: Will it rain today in Melbourne, Orlando, Tampa, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Fort Pierce, Florida?

Shown is the National Weather Service Melbourne radar, which shows real-time conditions for the Space Coast and other parts of Florida. The current date and time is shown in the bottom right of this embedded radar. Otherwise, you may need to clear your cache.

Weather radar: Will it rain today in West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Naples, Miami, Florida?

Shown is the National Weather Service radar for West Palm Beach, showing real-time conditions for parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys. The current date and time is shown in the lower right of this embedded radar. Otherwise, you may need to clear your cache.

Weather radar: Will there be showers, thunderstorms and rain in Florida today?

Shown is the National Weather Service radar for the Southeastern United States, showing real-time conditions. The current date and time is shown in the lower right of this embedded radar. Otherwise, you may need to clear your cache.

Watch and warning issued for Florida, USA

Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

Heavy rainfall forecast

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is September 10, with peak activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the National Hurricane Center.

According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, these are the names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:

  • Alberto
  • beryl
  • Chris
  • Debbie
  • Ernesto
  • Francine
  • Gordon
  • Helen
  • Isaac
  • Joyce
  • Church
  • Leslie
  • Milton
  • Nadine
  • Oscar
  • Patrick
  • Rafael
  • Sarah
  • Tony
  • Valerie
  • William

What happens next?

We’ll continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local website’s app to make sure you’re always up to date with the news. And look out for our special subscription offers here.

Contributor: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network-Florida

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