NHC is currently observing 5 tropical waves, heavy rains are expected in Texas
Development of a tropical storm possible in the first week of September
The first tropical storm in the Atlantic since mid-August could form before the end of the first week of September.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring five disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean. All of them have a low probability of developing in the next seven days.
According to the latest warning, one system in the Gulf of Mexico has a 30% chance of developing in the next week. Two disturbances have a 20% chance, and two others have a 10% chance. One of the disturbances with a 10% chance is just off the coast of Texas.
The locations of the tropical waves that the Hurricane Center has highlighted on its tropical map are located at:
- In the northwest of the Gulf of Mexico
- Over the northwestern Caribbean and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
- In the northwest Atlantic
- In the central Atlantic
- In the Eastern Atlantic
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Tropical disturbance tracker: Will Texas be affected?
The system near the Louisiana and Texas coasts is expected to bring heavy rains to parts of the northern Gulf Coast over the next few days. From Friday into Saturday, the main rain zone will be concentrated in northern Florida, southern parts of Alabama and Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, according to AccuWeather.
Aside from the heavy rainfall, it is too early to tell whether the tropical waves will impact Texas or the United States.
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A low-pressure system is causing widespread, disorganized rain showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, including near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas.
It is expected that the upper-level winds will have less of a development-promoting effect by Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the system.
Although further shaking is expected, heavy rainfall is expected across much of the northern Gulf Coast over the next few days.
- Chance of occurrence within 48 hours: Low, 10 percent.
- Chance of occurrence within 7 days: Low, 10 percent.
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Rain and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly with a westward moving tropical wave over the western Caribbean.
Significant development appears unlikely before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday.
Some development is possible late weekend and early next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
- Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: Almost 0 percent.
- Chance of creation within 7 days: Low, 30 percent.
Northwest Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure system several hundred miles east of North Carolina is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the northeast and east of its center.
This system could acquire subtropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves generally north-northeastward and remains off the coast of the northeastern U.S. Once the low pressure system moves over cooler waters by Saturday evening, no further subtropical development is expected.
- Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
- Probability of occurrence within seven days: low, 20 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A broad low pressure system over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. As this system drifts northwest or north, slow development is possible over the next few days.
- Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Probability of occurrence after seven days: low, 20 percent.
Central Tropical Atlantic: Another tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing limited rain and thunderstorm activity.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit the development of this system over the next few days as it moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Early next week, environmental conditions may favor slow development as the system moves west-northwestward across the southwestern Atlantic.
- Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: Low, close to 0 percent.
- Chance of creation within 7 days: Low, 10 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – that is, a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.
The colors indicate how likely the development of a system could be: yellow stands for low, orange for medium and red for high.
The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until a storm is named, but there is one exception.
“If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet developed into a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
How many named storms were there in 2024?
So far, there have been five named storms in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:
- Tropical Storm Alberto: Reached the Texas coast in June 2024 with some flooding and had less impact on the region than originally forecast.
- Hurricane Beryl: Struck the Texas coast as a Category 1 hurricane near Matagorda on July 8, killing at least 38 people and setting a record for tornado spawn.
- Tropical Storm Chris: Brought heavy rains and flooding to parts of Mexico in early July.
- Hurricane Debby: Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on August 5, causing severe damage along the east coast and killing at least 10 people.
- Hurricane Ernesto: On August 24, it struck Puerto Rico with significant flooding and then Bermuda. It was a moderate hurricane with three indirect fatalities.
What is La Niña?
La Niña – Spanish for “little girl” – is the climate phenomenon that results when the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean near the equator are lower than the long-term average. El Niño – Spanish for “little boy,” her brother – is a climate phenomenon that occurs when these waters are warmer than usual.
The lower surface temperatures could mean warmer, drier weather throughout the southern regions of the United States, and there is a possibility of a “hyperactive” hurricane season in the Atlantic basin this year.
Hurricane Storm Tracker: See active storms in the Atlantic
Weather observations and warnings for Texas
A warning means that conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A warning means that conditions are possible in the warning area. A warning is usually issued 48 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.
