And so, point-scoring fantasy football is back. The drafts are done, the rosters are scrutinized, and for the degenerates among us, humble writers included, DFS is an exciting way to live week to week.
We have 12 games on the schedule for kickoff weekend, which offers plenty of options even without the full season analysis to narrow down the selection a bit.
Let’s break down the best NFL DFS value plays for NFL Week 1.
NFL Week 1 DFS Value Plays: Targets and Advice
This article aims to decipher the values in the lobbies. It is not intended to be a guide to building rosters. Instead, it will help identify some players who are priced below their potential on both DraftKings and FanDuel due to various factors.
Let’s get down to business.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB) vs. WAS | $5,600 (DraftKings)
Not how many readers might have imagined this weekly article, but hear me out before you hit ALT+F4. Baker Mayfield finished his first season in Tampa Bay with his first 4,000-yard passing season and the most passing touchdowns (28) of his career. His environment remains largely unchanged in terms of big-name producers like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White. The former first-overall draft pick is enjoying a career resurgence.
Washington’s pass defense may have improved since last season, but what does that mean? They were considered the worst pass defense in the league and allowed the most fantasy points to the quarterback position, so if they’re allowing the second-most now, that’s still a net gain for the quarterbacks who face them.
Is Mayfield an attractive choice for the roster? No. But he is valuable because of the matchup, the weapons at his disposal, and the resurgence we saw in his play last season. This is more of a GPP tournament game than a cash game game this week. For those using multiple lineups, Mayfield should be in some and can be easily stacked due to his salary.
Justin Fields (QB – PIT) vs ATL | $6,900 (FanDuel)
This game is entirely dependent on Russell Wilson’s availability. At the time of writing/rewriting, Wilson is questionable due to a calf injury. While there are reports that he is traveling with the team, his status is unclear at best. That puts Justin Fields firmly on the DFS radar. While he’s not a great quarterback in real football, he boosts fantasy points with what he can do with his legs.
Fields finished in the top 10 as a quarterback six times in the 13 games he played last season. In those games, he averaged 197 passing yards, 1.23 passing touchdowns, 50.5 rushing yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game last season.
Additionally, the Falcons gave up the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. In their only meeting last season, Fields amassed 268 passing yards, one passing touchdown, 45 receiving yards, and another touchdown on the ground.
If Wilson is unable to compete, Fields is a solid start with top-10 chances in a good matchup that is best used in tournaments.
Running backs
Ken Walker (RB – SEA) vs DEN | 6,100 USD (DraftKings)
Despite a somewhat disappointing sophomore season, Ken Walker remains the guy with the big weekly potential coveted by DFS players. He’s not a workhorse and doesn’t rely on touchdowns, as he can score one on every run. In 15 games last season, he had four RB1 completions, including an RB3 completion in week three. While he doesn’t rely on volume as much as explosive plays, he averaged 14.6 runs per game last season. With Zach Charbonnet hampered by injury, he could get more work in week 1.
While it’s too early in the season to evaluate the fantasy points allowed by defenses, it’s worth noting that the Broncos allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position last season.
Walker can be used confidently in cash games and sparingly in GPPs based on an expected roster strength of 10-20%. His salary is the 12th highest for this list, but he also happens to offer limited PPR appeal after having 37 targets last season.
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) vs SEA | $6,100 (FanDuel)
Yes, this week we’re featuring opposing running backs as potential values for DFS contests.
Javonte Williams’ social media experience has been a rollercoaster leading up to preseason games. At one point, rumors were circulating that he might not make the roster, which was silly. However, last season was far from a peak of his talent and importance to this roster. However, he’s coming off a full season after suffering a knee injury that ended his sophomore season early.
To start the season off right, the Seahawks allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position last season, allowing 1.1 rushing touchdowns and 24.3 fantasy points per game to running backs.
Williams is a strong cash game option, while his counterpart, Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000), is a good pivot option for tournaments that allow for more lineup flexibility.
Check out our full cash game and GPP tips.
Wide receivers
Christian Kirk (WR – JAX) vs. MIA | 5,500 USD (DraftKings)
Christian Kirk is looking to pick up right where he left off last season by maintaining a first read target share above 20% in this passing offense. In five of his 12 games last season, Kirk was a WR2 or better for fantasy, and in two others he just missed that mark.
The Dolphins allowed a lot of points to slot receivers last season, which fits well with Kirk’s frequent use. Overall, the Dolphins allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers last season.
Kirk can be used in both cash and tournaments, but is more popular in tournaments where his roster share is expected to be in the 1-5% range. While he most likely won’t fit the mold of a top-12 receiver this week, that’s not completely out of the question. He will be used as a mid-range WR2 to provide a stable base for rosters while also offering potential upside in a favorable matchup.
Andrei Iosivas (WR – CIN) vs. NE | $5,000 (FanDuel)
At the time of this writing, Tee Higgins is listed as questionable. Ja’Marr Chase is listed as questionable and has had little practice to date. Andrei Iosivas was already expected to step into Tyler Boyd’s role in three-wide receiver sets. Now he has the opportunity to expand his role and serve as one of the Bengals’ top targets.
The Patriots were a mediocre pass defense last season. With Burrow healthy and returning to center, the matchup is far less intimidating.
Iosivas is a tournament player best utilized by players who have multiple lineups. With an expected roster strength of 10-20%, he is far better suited to this role than cash competition or single-game entries.
Tight ends
Zach Ertz (TE – WAS) vs TB | $3,600 (DraftKings)
This is a complete punt play that works on multiple levels. First of all, this may be the 33-year-old tight end’s healthiest play all season. It just so happens to be against a defense that has previously been vulnerable to the position. Last season, Tampa Bay allowed the tight end the fourth-most fantasy points. Yes, it’s well known that many players are already clamoring for Ben Sinnott, and rightfully so. However, there is usually an adjustment period for the position and Zach Ertz has enough experience to easily slide into his duties.
The matchup is good. Ertz has a track record. Finally, his salary allows for flexibility at other positions. Ertz is best suited for GPP competitions and players who use multiple lineups.
Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN) vs. SEA | $4,600 (FanDuel)
Greg Dulcich’s injuries last season marred the success of his rookie season. He was a big player waiting to play as a rookie and can still be used all over the lineup. With a rookie quarterback, there are certainly reasons to hold off until we see how he is used. That being said, he is the kind of mobile chess piece that can make a splash as a one-off piece in a lineup.
The Seahawks allowed the 13th most fantasy points to tight ends. That may not be too encouraging at first, but the positional flexibility on the field leads to a greater reliance on one or two big-play opportunities to win.
Dulcich is The unique player at this position in tournaments with multiple lineups.
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In addition to our daily fantasy football content, you will also find our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value games – which allows you to identify players who are likely to perform better than their salary promises – to our DFS Cheat Sheet – giving you a quick look at the players of the day – we have you covered this fantasy football season.
John Hesterman is a featured author and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his Archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
